Saturday, March 17, 2001
State numbers may lead to political shift
Redistricting could alter party balance, move voting blocs
By Howard Wilkinson
The Cincinnati Enquirer
Some of the people most anxious about the Ohio census figures released Friday were state and federal legislators, whose jobs may be riding on what the numbers say.
And in Southwest Ohio, it may mean that tens of thousands of voters may find themselves transported from one congressional or state legislative district to another.
In Ohio, Democrats and Republicans have known for months that Ohio's 19-member delegation in the U.S. House will shrink to 18 because Ohio's population growth did not keep pace with other states.
Because the Republican-controlled Ohio General Assembly will wield the pencil that will draw the new congressional district lines, one of Ohio's eight Democratic U.S. House members - probably one from northeast Ohio - will find that his district no longer exists by the time the 2002 election comes along.
The state's five-member apportionment board, which redraws state House and Senate district lines, has a 4-1 Republican majority. It is likely to strengthen the majorities the GOP has in the Ohio House and Senate.
Ohio Senate President Richard Finan, R-Evendale, said it will be October before the state apportionment board has a new plan for state legislative districts and sometime in early 2002 before the new congressional district lines are set.
The legislature has hired experts at Cleveland State University and Ohio University to analyze census tract information. That analysis won't be ready for another three to four weeks, Mr. Finan said.
Aside from eliminating a Democratic district, redistricting will also make the 1st Congressional District, held since 1994 by Republican Steve Chabot, more Republican.
Officials will take in population from either the heavily Republican 2nd District, represented by Rob Portman, or the Butler County portion of the 8th District, held by West Chester Republican John Boehner.
The census numbers released Friday indicate Mr. Chabot's district lost about 30,000 people in the past 10 years and is down to about 540,000 people. The new national census numbers will require each of the nation's 435 House districts to include about 610,000 people, which means map-makers will have to find another 70,000 people to put in Mr. Chabot's district.
Mr. Finan said court rulings over the years have severely limited the amount of political maneuvering state legislatures and apportionment boards can do when re-drawing lines.
You can't just wield that pen willy-nilly, Mr. Finan said. You have to come up with a reasonable plan. Otherwise you're just going to get it thrown out in court.
Ohio Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell, an apportionment board member, said he hopes fellow Republicans will not pack minority voters into certain districts, as Republicans were accused of doing when they controlled the process 10 years ago.
That minimizes the influence of all African-American voters, said Mr. Blackwell, an African-American. It makes it so the Republicans can write them off and the Democrats can take them for granted.
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