Stocks might continue to fall — the Dow Jones Industrial Average potentially bottoming around 8200 and the Nasdaq Composite Index tanking perhaps as low as 1100, a leading futurist said this week.

        But take heart — overall, the United States is still in a boom, and these lows present some fabulous buying opportunities, said Harry Dent, a renowned trend watcher and futurist.

        Mr. Dent is the author of three books on trends and future movements, including The Great Boom Ahead and The Roaring 2000's. Formerly a consultant to Fortune 100 companies and CEO to several entrepreneurial growth companies, Mr. Dent is an investment strategist and managing director of H.S. Dent Advisors.

        Mr. Dent was in Cincinnati Wednesday speaking at a Merrill Lynch seminar. His message: Demographics will keep driving us up — no matter what blip we're seeing today.

        “First thing, we're still in an incredible boom that started in the early '80s,” he said in an interview before taking the podium. “This boom is not over any more than it was in the 1987 crash.”
       

Demographics

        Baby boomers are the reason for the two-decade-long booming economy, Mr. Dent said. People generally hit their peak spending years at 47 years old. The majority of the boomers get there by 2009.

        “The baby boomers are continuing to spend,” he said, saying the current economic downturn would be a full-blown, wicked recession if it weren't for Boomer spending.

        But that will slow down after 2009. Then the “birth dearth,” or “baby bust,” takes over — and Mr. Dent foresees a protracted slowdown in consumer spending and and ensuing fallout in stock prices.

        Mr. Dent predicts the U.S. economy and markets could mirror the screeching halt of growth in Japan, where a baby bust has contributed to decade-long economic problems.

        “Demographic trends are the primary trend driving our economy,” he said. “It's simple demographics.”
       

Techs still expanding

        Don't let the “correction” in stock prices fool you, Mr. Dent said. The United States still is in a boom, and there's still room for growth — especially in technology.

        Yes, technology. Despite tech-heavy Nasdaq falling almost 70 percent in the past 13 months, Mr. Dent says technology stocks are among his top recommendations.

        “We're still in an expansion,” he said. “We're only halfway through the technological revolution.”

        Prices crashing was the natural conclusion of being overinflated, he said. He especially likes enterprise software companies and semi-conductor manufacturers.

        “Do the opposite of what people's intuition would be,” he said. “Buy in industries that are the hardest hit, as long as you know they still have the fundamental trend behind them.”

        And to Mr. Dent, Baby Boomers continuing to buy computers and invest in the technology is the most important trend of all.

        Amy Higgins writes about personal finance for the Enquirer. You can reach her at 768-8373; ahiggins@enquirer.com; or Your Money, The Cincinnati Enquirer, 312 Elm St., Cincinnati 45202.

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