Saturday, May 05, 2001
Fears of recession rekindled
Job cuts in April biggest in 10 years
The Associated Press
WASHINGTON The unemployment rate jumped to 4.5 percent in April, reviving fears of recession as companies shed the largest number of jobs in a decade.
The Labor Department's report Friday reinforced worries that rising layoffs might cause consumers to cut back sharply on spending and tip the country into a recession.
How do you spell ugly? How about horrible? It doesn't get much worse than this, I hope, economist Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors said.
Last month, 223,000 people lost their jobs, the largest reduction since February 1991, when the country was still mired in its last recession.
It was the second straight month of job losses. In March, 53,000 people were cut from payrolls, an improvement over the reduction of 86,000 the government had previously reported.
Just a week ago, the government reported that the economy grew at a surprisingly strong rate of 2 percent in the first three months of this year, raising hopes that the darkest days of the slowdown had passed.
Wall Street investors saw a silver lining in the dismal news, thinking that it raised hopes that the Federal Reserve will aggressively cut interest rates and Congress will provide tax relief. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 155 points to finish at 10,951, the highest level since Feb. 6.
Some private economists think that first-quarter growth could be revised down a bit, based on expectations of weaker business investment and consumer spending. Others, however, think growth might be a bit stronger.
The government routinely comes out with three estimates of economic growth for a given quarter, each based on more complete information. The next estimate of first-quarter growth will be released May 25.
But the real concern among private economists is the performance of the economy in the current second quarter. Friday's employment report for April raised concerns that the worst of the economic slowdown is not over.
The April employment figures are recession-type numbers, First Union economist Mark Vitner said. The economy is losing momentum and ... the odds of recession have increased.
Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo, said the promotions, rebates and price cuts that helped to fuel consumer spending earlier this year cut into corporate profits and were now triggering layoffs.
The bottom line is that a profit recession is leading to a higher jobless rate, Sung Won Sohn said.
The big loss in jobs boosted April's unemployment rate to a 2 1/2-year high of 4.5 percent, a 0.2 percentage-point increase over March's 4.3 percent rate.
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