Comair pilots are now at the controls; after six weeks on strike, they can put the airline back in the air, or keep it grounded.

        The airline's 1,350 pilots vote this week on a contract proposal submitted by the National Mediation Board on Thursday.

        Most experts say the pilots, and Comair management for that matter, have reasons to keep the strike going.

DAY 42

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        But the benefits of ratifying the proposal far outweigh continuing a dispute that has created its share of economic and emotional damage for all, the experts say.

        That's especially true with losses approaching $200 million and counting for both sides as the strike enters its 42nd day today. More importantly, more damage looms for both sides in the scheduled layoff May 13 of 2,000 nonpilot Comair employees — 1,500 of whom live and work in the Tristate.

        “The downside of continuing the strike is so severe that they need to take this easy out,” said Richard Gritta, a business professor and airline expert at Oregon's University of Portland. “They've got to come to some sort of conclusion, and with the mediation board pushing in the middle, this gives both sides an opportunity to save face as well as act conciliatory toward the other side.”

        Friday, management for the Erlanger-based regional carrier accepted the proposal to end the strike.

        The company and its parent, Delta Air Lines, have lost $4 million daily on the strike, Delta officials have said, meaning the total losses are approximately $168 million through today.

        Meanwhile, the pilots have lost about $144,000 a day in combined salaries, or about $6 million through today.

DEVELOPMENTS

The union representing Comair's 1,350 pilots Saturday released a little more information about this week's ratification vote on a proposed contract crafted by the National Mediation Board.     The telephone ballot begins at 2 p.m. Thursday and ends at 2 p.m. Saturday, although it's not clear whether results will be available that day.     The pilots are still on strike pending the vote, which will take place after information sessions are held Wednesday in Cincinnati and Thursday in Orlando, Fla., Comair's second-largest hub.     They continued their daily picketing Saturday at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport, union spokesman Paul Lackie said.     Those pickets will continue through next Saturday, Mr. Lackie said.     Neither the union nor the company has released the proposal.     Company officials said they had not yet determined whether the 2,000 layoffs planned for May 13 would still be needed if pilots ratify the contract. Comair has teams working on how to restart the airline and what to do if the proposal fails.     In addition, workers in line to be laid off can apply for unemployment at Comair offices Tuesday through Thursday, a company spokeswoman said.

        The Master Executive Council of Comair's branch of the Air Line Pilots Association said it was putting the proposal up to a ratification vote later this week.
       

Down the middle?
        Which side would benefit more from the deal is still in doubt. Mediation board officials did not disclose details of the offer, which is nonbinding, meaning that if either side had chosen to reject it out of hand, or if it is not ratified, the strike would continue.

        Pilots union spokesman Paul Lackie said none of the pilots has the proposal, with the exception of the negotiating team and the executive council.

        “I haven't seen a word of the language, so I have no predictions on what the pilots might do,” he said.

        “We're still trying to work that out about how to disseminate the information,” Mr. Lackie said. “For us to try to conduct this kind of operation this fast is pretty much unheard of.”

        And company officials said they were holding onto details until all the pilots have had a chance to review the proposal.

        But experts say that given the mediation board's reputation and the fact that it has rarely, if ever, taken this step, the proposed solution probably splits the difference.

        When the two sides entered the talks that resulted in the proposal, they were far apart on work rules, retirement benefits and job protection.

        Company officials have said the difference in total compensation was $240 million, while the pilots say the difference was about half that.

        One downside to turning down the deal is that the entire bargaining process would be derailed, experts say. Mediators generally try to get the two parties to feel good about a mutual agreement, and introduce their own proposals as a last resort.

        Purdue University business professor Frank J. Dooley, author of two books on the Railway Labor Act and the mediation board, which oversees labor negotiations in the railroad and airline industries, said he has never heard of the mediation board introducing such a proposal.

        “This could really backfire if it doesn't fly,” Mr. Dooley said. “The whole thing about bargaining is to set down the rules. And this is outside the understood rules, so if they ever come back, there may not be any trust. And coming back to the table could be a long shot at best.”

        As for an upside, union officials have long said they want a contract more in line with those at mainline carriers such as Delta. They say they aren't seeking the same pay, but similar duty days and retirement benefits.

        Rejecting the mediation board offer and continuing the strike could force the company to comply and grant that big payoff, said Kit Darby, a United Airlines pilot and president of Air Inc., an Atlanta-based pilot placement service.

        “Otherwise, the only option is compromise, which this is,” Mr. Darby said. “This isn't a win-win, it's about who loses the most or least. And the option of getting a respected third party might be too good to pass up.”
       

"Death grip' bargaining
        David Walsh, a business professor and airline expert at Miami University, said emotions could cloud the judgment of the pilots and management, however, now that both sides have amassed economic and emotional losses.

        For example, Comair has eliminated 200 pilot positions and slashed its fleet by 17 planes.

        And the biggest development that looms over the situation is the company's recent announcement of 2,000 layoffs, including 1,500 jobs based at the airline's hub and headquarters at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport.

        “Right now, both sides are in this death grip, staring at each other,” Mr. Walsh said. ""(If) they don't take this now, and keep the strike going, they could run the company into the ground. And the pilots have to realize they could be without the jobs they are trying to improve.”

        Mr. Lackie disputed that emotions, or even overly optimistic expectations by the pilots, would enter into the voting this week.

        “I would submit that the pilots have been sober throughout this entire process,” he said. “Are pilots driven by their emotions? The answer is emphatically no.”

        Comair officials would not comment on whether the support staff layoffs would be rescinded if the contract is ratified, saying the situation is still in flux. They have said, however, that starting the airline back up would take longer than originally thought, and that the company would be smaller than before the strike.

        But Mr. Gritta said most, if not all, of Comair's workers would be needed if the airline wants to get back in the air and start to recoup its losses.

        And while looking out for themselves, the pilots still have to one day work alongside these same people whose jobs are in jeopardy.

        “The company doesn't want to lose those people, even if they may have to cut some to stay lean and mean and efficient to pay for the new contract,” Mr. Gritta said. “And it's a double-edged sword for the pilots. They could be raising the level for all the employees, but they may not be seen in that light within the company.”

        Then there are the paying passengers, who have already put up with the loss of Comair's 815-flight daily schedule that served many smaller cities, for 42 days. If the pilots turn the deal down, they could lose the battle for public perception, although that might not concern them at this point.

        “They'd be tagged as the ones who killed the airline, although they might not care,” Mr. Dooley said. “I just don't see how either side could turn it down given how long the strike has lasted.

        “Then the big question becomes: How do you get along afterwards when there are parts of the deal neither side likes?”

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