and Dave Carpenter
The Associated Press

        With U.S. fuel prices at record highs and motorists paying $2 a gallon for regular unleaded in Chicago and California, talk from the pump Monday focused on whether prices could reach a once-unthinkable $3 a gallon this summer. But the odds appear to be against it — one industry analyst said $3 gasoline remains as unlikely for the time being as snow in July.

MIDWEST PRICES

Chicago, as it did last year, leads the nation in gasoline prices. The cities with the highest prices tend to have reformulated gas. (Stations in the Louisville area, along with the Northern Kentucky counties of Boone, Campbell and Kenton, must sell reformulated gas — but not until Memorial Day.)   Here's a look at prices for a gallon of regular unleaded gas across the region, as reported by the AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report:   • Chicago — $1.97   • Milwaukee — $1.90   • Detroit — $1.84   • Indianapolis — $1.78   • Dayton — $1.75   • Cincinnati (Ohio portion only) $1.74 • Cleveland — $1.74   • Columbus — $1.74   • Akron — $1.72   • Louisville — $1.71   • Evansville — $1.68   • Lexington — $1.68   • Youngstown — $1.67

        “The worst may already be over, because refiners are getting caught up” with supplies, said Phil Flynn, senior energy analyst for Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. “The bad news for consumers is we don't have one extra drop of gas to fall back on.

        “If one more refinery goes out of service, it could have an impact on consumers of as much as 75 cents a gallon.”

        Phil Verleger, a Newport Beach, Calif.-based energy economist and consultant, said all areas that are required to use reformulated gas, including Northern Kentucky and Louisville, could see price spikes as high as $3 if there is a problem with supply.

        That supply could be in jeopardy with a recent fire at an Illinois refinery.

        And that would create a ripple effect across the river in Ohio, Mr. Verleger said, because Kentuckians would drive to where the gasoline is cheaper.

        “It's hard to have $1.50 gas on one side and $3 gas on the other,” Mr. Verleger said. “It won't get to $3 in Ohio if it's that way in Kentucky, but everyone would be going over, taxing the system and forcing the prices up.”

        Drivers in parts of the nation are being confronted by prices soaring to $2 and higher, bringing back unpleasant memories of last year's price increases. AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report found that the national average for a gallon of regular unleaded was $1.68 Monday; in the Ohio portion of Greater Cincinnati, the average was $1.74.

        Motorist Mark Lasser shook his head unhappily at the prices — $2.13 a gallon for unleaded and $2.25 for premium — as he stood filling his sport-utility vehicle at a San Francisco station.

        “This is depressing,” he said as the nozzle shut off at $41.83. “I already pay $250 to $300 a month.”

        Chicago taxi driver Ikemefun Onwuke said the latest price increases might force him to look for a different job.

        “It's not worth it, driving a cab,” he said.

        Still, factoring in inflation, current prices are about a dollar less than the average cost of gasoline in March 1981, according to the Lundberg Survey, an industry watcher. It's also significantly less than motorists pay in much of the rest of the world.

        That's small consolation to many, especially in the Midwest, which saw the highest price increase — 13 cents — and the West, where prices rose 8 percent since April 20. Those two regions fared worst in part because of the reformulated gasoline they rely on to limit pollution.

        In Chicago, which has the nation's highest average price at $1.97 to $2.02 for a gallon of self-service regular, a fill-up that used to cost Erika Trujillo $20 for her Nissan Stanza now runs about $30.

        “This is crazy. $2.34 for a gallon of gas?” the 19-year-old cashier said at a pump in downtown Chicago. “We can't even afford to pump gas anymore. We're going to have to get on our bicycles.”

        Despite rising pump costs, an unexpected increase in gasoline inventories in the past two weeks has raised hopes that prices might already have peaked unless there are additional supply problems. Unlike last year, the crude oil supplies that are the source of U.S. gasoline are abundant.

        But the market remains jittery after fires at Tosco refineries in Los Angeles and Wood River, Ill., that threatened supplies and sent gasoline futures to a 17-year high last week on the New York Mer cantile Exchange.

        Adam Sieminski, an analyst for Deutsche Banc Alex Brown, dismissed the $3-a-gallon talk as irresponsible hype that could spook motorists into filling cans of gas and stocking up.

        “It's not going to be that bad,” he said.

        If crude oil prices skyrocket and a refinery accident or a pipeline outage disrupts supplies, he said, premium gasoline could go higher than $2 and perhaps even touch $3 at a station or two.

Web sites start charging
$3 gas? Experts divided
White House notes prices
Comair still plans layoffs
Delta names government liaison
Avon plans makeover to include retail sales
Chain racks up big sales
Computers face crossroads
Tristate Summary
What's the Buzz?