FRANKFORT — The state can “get through '02 without a whole lot of pain,” even if fears of a huge budget shortfall are realized, Gov. Paul Patton said Friday.

        The pain will come, if it comes at all, when drafting a budget for 2003 and 2004, Mr. Patton said. In any event, funding of education is reasonably secure, he told a committee of legislators and higher education overseers.

Patton

        The administration is speculating that revenues in the fiscal year that begins July 1 will fall well short — perhaps $315 million short — of the $7.2 billion budgeted. Mr. Patton ordered contingency plans for spending cuts in everything but education, which is 57 percent of the budget.

        State Budget Director James Ramsey said Friday that the rest of state government would have to absorb a 10 percent cut if a $315 million shortfall occurred and education remained off-limits.

        “Our goal in '02 is to maintain our commitment to education,” but it will be extremely difficult to balance the budget, Mr. Ramsey told the Strategic Committee on Postsecondary Education.

        Mr. Patton, a member of the committee, said he did not want the public to be alarmed.

        “There's no way we're going to be making 10 percent cuts in programs next year ... because we've got some one-time revenue,” he said.

        He was referring to money budgeted but not spent in the current fiscal year. It would cover some expenses in the second year of the budget, he said.

        Relief would be fleeting, however. When time came to draft a budget for 2003 and 2004, the one-time money would be gone and costs would remain.

        “I think we can get through '02 without a whole lot of pain. The problem is going to come in writing '03 and '04,” which likely will be “austere years,” the governor said.

        As for funding of universities, “I don't think there will be cuts but the increases would be less” if the economy did not rebound, Mr. Patton said.

        Also Friday, Mr. Ramsey's budget office said the state's General Fund receipts declined again in May. The $500.8 million total was 3 percent below the level for May 2000, due in part to changes in timing of the processing of individual income tax returns.

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