Measuring the Tristate economy only by the growing number of unemployment claims here, it's easy to think that hard times have arrived.

        A slowing national economy has triggered job cuts and hiring freezes since late last year. And this month, layoffs and early retirements will take effect at a restructuring Procter & Gamble.

        But a still-strong job market in Greater Cincinnati means the unemployed and laid-off keep finding jobs — and that's keeping unemployment lower than the national average.

Ross McClure, a pipe fitter apprentice, found a job within months of being laid off. (Ernest Coleman photo) | ZOOM |

        Some experts and blue-collar workers even speculate an economic about-face is near.

        “Two weeks ago, I started on a new job,” said pipe fitter apprentice Ross McClure. He was outside the Central Parkway office of the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services, where he was picking up a delayed and final unemployment check. “Work was slow, but with the new (Reds) stadium coming in, I think everything should pick up.”

        Mr. McClure's experience — finding work within months of being laid off — isn't uncommon. And it's a sure sign to some experts that despite national and local headlines about layoffs and recession, the Greater Cincinnati economy is resilient and has plenty of momentum.

        “Yes, there have been some job losses in some industries but those have been more than offset by gains and expansions,” said Gary Flesch, labor market analyst for Southwest Ohio for the Department of Job and Family Services.

        The department's May report indicates that 8,100 new jobs came to Greater Cincinnati between May 2000 and May 2001. However, manufacturing employment dropped by 4,000 jobs during that time frame. Most of the growth came in services, about 6,000 jobs, and in retail trade, about 2,000 jobs.

        There are other signs the economic climate is heading for a change.

        “One indicator of a type of turnaround is the manufacturing workweek,” said Sophia Koropeckyj, senior economist for Economy.com, a West Chester, Pa., consulting firm. “Before companies start hiring back, they're going to increase overtime. And we have seen a little movement in that category.”

        Still, she said, there is some fragility: “We're not in a recession, but we are close to it.”

        There is at least one other regional indicator of good news: The unemployment rate has been stable for 2001 in Greater Cincinnati.

        While the national unemployment rate was 4.1 percent in May, the Tristate rate was 3.1 percent (compared with 3.4 percent in May 2000).        

Some jobless claims up

        Not all indicators point up, however. First-time unemployment claims are up sharply throughout the region. The surge is particularly acute in Butler and Clermont counties, say officials of the Departmentof Job and Family Services.

        A review of local unemployment statistics by The Enquirer indicates that there are 45 percent more first-time unemployment claims in the first four months of 2001 versus the same four months of 2000.

        Elsewhere, unemployment claims are rising, according to Economy.com:

        • Up 83 percent between April 2000 and April 2001 in the Great Lakes region.

        • Up 197 percent in the South Atlantic states.

        • Up 166 percent in New England.

        While the nation shows a 92 percent increase in initial jobless claims, Cincinnati's rate mirrors the rate of western mountain states such as Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico and Idaho, which have seen a 49 percent increase.

        Local officials blame a slowdown in goods-producing industries.

        “Manufacturing activity is kind of moving backward,” said Pam Graybill, supervisor of the job services office in Batavia.

        Milacron Inc.'s Batavia-based plastic technology business trimmed about 150 jobs in mid-May because of continued weak demand for plastic-making machinery. Milacron's plastics division employs about 1,200 in Batavia and at a satellite plant in nearby Afton.

        Those cuts came on top of 70 jobs eliminated this year because of a slowdown in capital spending.

        Bob Bullis, account supervisor for the job service's Batavia office, spends his day talking with Clermont County employers. He says the job market is the slowest he's seen in years.

        “Manufacturing has dramatically slowed down,” he said. “It's hard to quantify, but I've been going around calling on manufacturers in Clermont County. Some have noted that they expect to hire maybe next quarter but not this quarter.

        “Caution is the word with most businesses right now,” he said. “They don't want to have to hire a bunch of people and then have to let them go.”        

Industries feel pinch

        Donna Georgyi, customer service supervisor at the job service's Hamilton office, said job cuts at such companies as International Paper Co., which acquired Champion International Co. last year, and the recent closing of Mercy Hospital have been significant.

        “We're seeing workers from industries we haven't seen in eight or 10 years,” she said.

        Companies that supply the auto industry and the machine tool industry are also axing jobs. For example, Krupp Hoesch Suspensions, which makes automobile springs, eliminated about 60 jobs last month at its plant in Hamilton.

        The Employment Policy Foundation, an Arlington, Va., nonprofit think tank concerned with public policy issues, says the gloomy forecasts may be exaggerated. It found in April that mass layoff announcements must be seen in light of new jobs in other sectors.

        “Only about one in five job losers become unemployed because of a mass layoff event,” the foundation wrote in a study this year. “Job creation in February 2001 was comparable to the level in February 2000 when optimism was near its height and 15 percent greater than in February 1999.”

        What's more, half of those laid off find new work within 6.5 weeks, the foundation determined.

        Bruce Tillinghast, vice president and partner of Walker Machinery Co., a Fairfax-based machine tool distributor, said capital equipment tool manufacturers are suffering from overseas competition.

        “Everybody is getting squeezed,” Mr. Tillinghast said. “We need to ask this: How are we going to be able to manufacture durable goods competitively?

        “(Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan could lower the interest rate 2 points and that won't do anything for manufacturing. We need to get the dollar consistent with foreign currencies so we can build at prices that people can pay. Right now, one plant after another is heading to Mexico or to the Asian rim: China, Taiwan or Korea.”        

Desperate for workers

        While suppliers to the automotive and machine tool markets may be struggling, business is booming for companies making parts for jet engines and power generation turbines, a niche where Walker Machinery has a foothold.

        Hi-Tek Manufacturing Inc., a Mason supplier of blades and vanes for both markets, has openings for about 30 workers. So desperate is the company to hire workers with metal-cutting machinery skills, it has contacted companies that have announced job cuts to try to interview terminated workers.

        Still, says Cletis Jackson, Hi-Tek president, “We've resigned ourselves that we won't fill more than a minor portion of our need with already trained, capable, experienced people.”

        Hi-Tek is not alone.

        Sermatech-Lehr, a Blue Ash unit of Sermatech Manufacturing Group, makes turbine parts of the jet engines and power generation equipment. It is still looking to fill a half-dozen slots for computer-automated design operators, machinists and toolmakers, said Michael Brand, president of the business, which employs about 300.

        The strong market for turbine parts resulted in Sermatech filling about 40 jobs over the past year, he said.

        B.L. Spille Construction Co., an Erlanger general contractor and management firm, also has trouble finding qualified workers.

        “Right now, nobody in the construction business should be laid off,” said George A. Huser, senior vice president and co-owner of the company, which operates in 30 states and employs 80 workers.

        “If they're laid off, it's because they're not worth a hoot.”        

Avoiding big buys

        For some, the search for a job continues to be a fruitless one.

        Charles Kulpa, 43, was laid off in January from a production supervisory job he found through a staffing service. The Villa Hills man keeps looking for permanent work without much success.

        “I did what my parents told me,” he said. “I spent 11 years in the military, learned a trade and steadily grew my income, and here I am, back to looking at jobs that are paying 50 percent of what I was making last year.”

        He's contemplating opening a photography studio as a hedge against future unemployment. “I was a factory supervisor so I know all about how employee loyalty is pretty much gone,” he said.

        His wife, Jackie, is not optimistic about her husband's outlook.

        “He's looked for work at positions at the level where he started years ago but there's nothing so far,” Mrs. Kulpa said. “He even applied for a job at Hardees but they told him he was overqualified. We are struggling.

        “He had a birthday on Monday,” she said, “but it wasn't much of one, I'll tell you that.”
       

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