Every so often, the stock market makes a big move based on a little number.

        It could have been any of the alphabet-soup-like reports released periodically by private groups or governmental agencies. More often than not, the number itself is not as important as how that number has moved up or down, by a lot or a little.

        Analysts in turn use these measures to make predictions about U.S. business — and ultimately to decide how they want to invest.

        Here's a rundown of the some of the most-watched indicators, and what each tells us about the economy:

        • GDP (Gross Domestic Product): The GDP captures the total value of what the country produced. More important than this $10 trillion figure is how fast it's increasing.

        That the GDP growth rate has fallen from a recent high of 8.3 percent in late 1999 to 0.7 percent in 2001's second quarter tells us that the economy has significantly slowed, with companies making less money. The Bureau of Economic Analysis, a part of the U.S. Commerce Department, calculates the figure.

        • NAPM (National Association of Purchasing Management): The industry group's monthly report measures manufacturing activity and is based on a survey of purchasing executives who buy the raw materials for manufacturing at more than 350 industrial companies.

        This week, the measure fell to 43.6 in July from 44.7 in June, surprising economists, who had expected a reading of 44.5. In this case, movement isn't as important as the number — a reading above 50 indicates the manufacturing economy is growing, while a result below 50 signals it is shrinking.

        And a shrinking economy signals lower profits, and lower stock prices.

        • Consumer confidence: As its name implies, this reflects how good people feel about spending their money. If they're spending, corporate profits rise — along with stock prices.

        But the New York-based Conference Board said this week that its Consumer Confidence Index fell, based largely on a deteriorating job market and slumping stock prices. Still, the private research group also said consumer spending is expected to remain strong.

        • CPI (Consumer Price Index): Also called the cost-of-living index, this is how we most commonly measure inflation. The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures the monthly change in the CPI by valuing the change in the cost of a fixed basket of products and services.

        The June 2001 total CPI was 3.2 percent higher than the June 2000 number, while the CPI for all items except food and energy was 2.7 percent higher than last year.

        • Unemployment: The nation's unemployment rate held steady at 4.5 percent, the Labor Department reported on Friday, with the yearlong slide in factory jobs slowing a bit and service jobs gaining some ground in July.

        Analysts said the numbers provide a glimmer of hope — but not to expect that to be reflected in a stock rebound any time soon.

        Amy Higgins writes about personal finance for the Enquirer. You can reach her at 768-8373; ahiggins@enquirer.com; or Your Money, The Cincinnati Enquirer, 312 Elm St., Cincinnati, OH 45202.

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