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Thursday, August 30, 2001

Growth slowest in 8 years


But economists pleased by even slight spring gain

By Jeannine Aversa
The Associated Press

        WASHINGTON — The nation's economy inched ahead in the spring at the slowest pace in eight years. Still, the fact that there was any growth at all fueled hope that the economy might be ready to begin climbing again — without tipping into recession.

        Gross domestic product (GDP) — the country's total output of goods and services — grew at an annual rate of 0.2 percent in the April-June quarter, according to revised figures released by the Commerce Department Wednesday. That's a lower estimate than the 0.7 percent growth rate the government reported a month ago.

        Even so, the second-quarter performance was better than most analysts were forecasting. Some predicted that the economy would stall, while others thought it would slip into reverse, pos sibly signaling the start of the first recession in the United States in 11 years. A recession is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP.

        “We stayed on the right side of the ledger,” said Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services. “I think ... that we're more likely to find our way back to safer ground than we are to tumble over the edge.”

        Many analysts think that the second quarter will prove to have been the point that the economy showed the greatest danger of dipping into a recession. They predict that the economy will rebound to around a 2 percent growth rate in the current quarter and to around 3 percent to 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter.

        One of the main reasons for the lower estimate of second-quarter GDP is that companies did a better job liquidating their inventories than previously estimated. Inventory reduction was valued at $38.4 billion in the second quarter, the biggest decline since the first quar ter of 1983. That subtracted 0.4 percentage point from GDP.

        While inventory reduction subtracts from GDP, economists say excess inventories must be whittled before companies can ramp up production, something that would bode well for economic growth down the road.

        “Most of the required inventory liquidation is now behind us, and as a result, the economy now is in a better position to recover over the next several months,” said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Banc of America Capital Management.

       



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