Greater Cincinnati was insulated in recent years when the economy had troubles. When technology and dot-coms firms went belly up in California's Silicon Valley, the Tristate didn't hurt. But not this time. The manufacturing-heavy region stands to be hard-hit.

        “The manufacturing sector has seen a disproportionate portion of the pain of slower growth,” said economist Ken Mayland, president of ClearView Economics in suburban Cleveland. “For manufacturing, it was already more like a recession before Sept. 11.”

INFOGRAPHIC

Area economic indicators

        Indeed, only one of the Enquirer's eight economic indicators is positive this month, and that one — total employment — shows only a small uptick.

        Most others are showing drastic declines.

        Manufacturing employment, for one, has been falling steadily since August 2000.

        Last spring, NS Group eliminated its steel-making operation in Wilder. According to the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services, the local employment drop since last year has been especially pronounced in such metal-related sectors, along with industrial machinery and equipment, and electronic equipment.

        “The labor market was really looking pretty bleak, pre-attack,” said George Vredeveld, an economist at the University of Cincinnati and director of UC's Center for Economic Education.

        Mr. Vredeveld said the future numbers will look even worse because of announced layoffs that haven't been accounted for yet.

        And Mr. Mayland cautions that the bleeding isn't likely to stop at manufacturing in the wake of Sept. 11.

        “It's something that ripples through the economy,” he said. “People who are laid off cut back on the goods and services they demand.”

        Therefore, he expects to see service-sector jobs as second in the line of fire. Already, airlines have announced more than 100,000 jobs will be cut nationally.

        Delta Air Lines said it will trim 800 local jobs — while economists estimate that transportation jobs create an additional 1.280 jobs elsewhere, such as in restaurants and hotels.

        “Most of the adjustments in manufacturing are behind it already,” Mr. Mayland said.

        “The service areas are going to suffer next.”

        “Retailing will probably be very, very subdued over the holiday selling season.”

Area may feel chill this time
Movie house gets face lift
Paper maker to expand
Postal Service asks Ohio firms to help
Toon Art targets Japan's baseball fans
Tristate Summary
What's the Buzz?
HIGGINS: Investment climate changes
Downturn casts pall on golden years
Buyers active despite warnings of soft profits
Savvy Strategies
Rate report