Monday, November 19, 2001
Holiday travel off despite bargains
By James Pilcher
The Cincinnati Enquirer
It seems the entire travel industry is on sale airlines, hotels, attractions, car rentals and even gasoline. Yet fewer people will be traveling this holiday week compared with years past as the aftermath of Sept. 11 continues to devastate an almost $600 billion sector of the economy.
We didn't have plans to go away for Thanksgiving, but I had a chance to take a last-minute business trip early in the week, said Alex Vidas, a Liberty Township medical software engineer. Normally, I would have stayed away, no matter what. But this time, I actually entertained it, because I knew the planes would be less crowded, although I'm still not going.
According to AAA, auto travel is expected to drop 1.6 percent this week compared with the same time last year, with 30 million Americans to travel 50 or more miles from home by car.
And the Air Transport Association, the main airline trade group, anticipates air travel to be down 15-20 percent compared with last year, when the system handled about 20 million passengers over Thanksgiving week the industry's busiest time of year.
The ATA normally predicts numbers day by day for the entire week. But the events of Sept. 11 which led to a dramatic drop in demand and then last Monday's crash of an American Airlines jet in New York made it impossible to predict actual traffic, association officials said.
Air travel was off 34.5 percent in September and 23 percent in October, meaning that demand might be rising again, perhaps because of deals now available.
AAA said it expects a 6 percent decline in air and road travel combined for Thanksgiving.
With the recent gloom and doom in the travel industry, a 6 percent drop is a definite improvement from the double-digit declines of the last two months, AAA Travel vice president Sandra Hughes said.
A AAA survey conducted in late October found that advance tickets for the Thanksgiving week were on average 13 percent cheaper than last year.
Every major airline has begun last-minute sales to boost traffic, including Delta Air Lines, which operates its second-largest hub at Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky International Airport.
Some airline analysts say the low fares could go away early next year if traffic begins to rebound and carriers look to recoup massive losses.
It has to, or some of these airlines are out of business, said Glenn Engel, airline analyst for the Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs. They've got to get revenues matching the demand.
But the airlines aren't the only ones in trouble, and not the only ones slashing prices to draw in more customers. Five-night Caribbean cruises are going for as little as $299 a person, excluding air fare.
The Greater Louisville Convention & Visitors Bureau has begun a deal that gives visitors discount hotel rooms and 2-for-1 discounts for area attractions.
And area hotels such as the Marriott chain are advertising rates as low as $44 a night for weekend nights, trying to draw in anyone from out of town visiting family. Most of the hotels in this area have been cutting rates just to get business back up, said Mary Wolsing, sales manager for the Marriott Residence Inn in Sharonville, where normally a room costs between $99 and $129 but is $49 with a coupon Thursday-Sunday.
The price of renting a car also is down 19 percent on average in 20 major cities, according to AAA.
Then there's gasoline. The average price in Cincinnati Friday went up 5 cents to $1.16, according to the AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report. compared with prices in the $1.50 range at the same time last year. The Northern Kentucky price rose 4 cents to $1.18 Friday, and the national average was $1.20, the report said.
Yet given that the price of crude oil is expected to keep dropping because of a lack of demand worldwide, many cities are experiencing prices below 90 cents a gallon for regular unleaded. Experts have predicted prices less than $1 for the Tristate by the end of the month.
While the prices are helping the industry recover somewhat, many potential travelers are limiting where they go over the next two months. We're going to stay closer to home with small trips like this, said Fred Boone, a Louisville gasoline station owner visiting Cincinnati this weekend. And while we've gone away for Thanksgiving before, and the rates are cheap, we don't want to get stuck somewhere if something else happens.
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