Cincinnati Public Schools has too much space — almost 2 million square feet too much, the equivalent of more than 15 schools — and will have to consolidate some buildings over the next decade.

        That's because the district's enrollment is expected to continue declining through 2009 by about 3,600 students, according to estimates released by CPS and state officials Wednesday.

        The projections will help officials from the 41,700-student district decide which of its 76 school buildings should be closed, consolidated or renovated as part of a district-wide school building plan being considered. Estimates peg the project cost at up to $900 million, but the state will contribute 23 percent if the district can come up with the rest.

        “It's obvious from this chart we will have to close some facilities for our plan,” said Michael Burson, CPS's director of facilities.

        The presentation suggested the district has about 1 million square feet more than necessary in its elementary schools and 737,000 square feet more than necessary in its high schools for future enrollment. That space equals about 13 elementary schools of 650 students and 2.5 high schools of 1,200 students.

        CPS Superintendent Steven Adamowski said having the right amount of space in the district will make operating more efficient.

        “When you run more schools than you need, those schools have costs,” he said. “Whenever that happens, we dilute and diminish per-pupil expenditures and ultimately take money from children in the system.”

        CPS has lost about 8,000 students since 1991-92, when enrollment hovered above 50,000, and while some buildings are crowded, others have too much space.

        The enrollment projections will help shape the district-wide building plan, the biggest the district has ever undertaken. CPS' building project is part of a statewide initiative to bring every Ohio school up to state standards. Since 1997, the state has averaged contributions of $1.75 million a day to districts across Ohio to upgrade buildings.

        State officials have assessed all CPS school buildings to determine which should be renovated or replaced. The state recommended that CPS replace or close 61 of its 76 buildings.

        Before CPS' project moves forward, the board of education must first agree to participate. Then the district must raise the remaining 77 percent of the cost through a bond issue, private donations and other revenue.

        District officials are developing a full-scale proposal to present to the public and board of education Jan. 9, detailing which schools should be rebuilt, closed, consolidated or sold. That plan will also include land acquisition needs and costs of items the state won't help pay for, and a time-frame for raising the needed revenue.

        The enrollment projections will aid that process. Consultants for the district and state analyzed Cincinnati's historical citywide birth rate, new housing permits, resident migration, school enrollment trends, and tracked students to see how many stay in the district from year to year.

        The projections do not factor in CPS' intent to increase enrollment by new initiatives, such as attracting dropouts to its new Virtual High School and attracting more students to five high schools now being redesigned.

        “We're not planning on our hopes and dreams at this point,” said CPS business executive Kent Cashell. “Hopefully, if that does happen, we'll have to revise our plan.”

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