Sunday, February 24, 2002
UC after No.1 seed
Xavier also poised for NCAA return
By Michael Perry
The Cincinnati Enquirer
The University of Cincinnati is going to the NCAA Tournament for an 11th consecutive year. That much is certain. The question now is whether the fourth-ranked Bearcats can wrap up their first No. 1 seed in the Bob Huggins era (they have been a No. 2 seed four times).
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THE ENQUIRER'S NCAA TOURNAMENT PROJECTIONS
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Predicted seeds (Ratings Percentage Index ranking in parentheses)
1. Kansas (1), Duke (2), Maryland (3), Cincinnati (4)
2. Oklahoma (5), Alabama (6), Florida (9), Pittsburgh (11)
3. Kentucky (7), Georgia (10), Indiana (15), Gonzaga (25)
4. Arizona (8), Connecticut (14), Marquette (20), USC (27)
5. Oklahoma State (13), Miami (17), UCLA (23), Stanford (36)
6. Texas Tech (12), Utah (16), Ohio State (21), Wake Forest (22)
7. Illinois (18), Mississippi State (19), Xavier (26), Oregon (41)
8. Texas (24), Tulsa (28), California (30), Syracuse (34)
9.Charlotte (29), Hawaii (31), St. John's (32), North Carolina State (33)
10. Mississippi (37), Utah State (39), BYU (42), Western Kentucky (44)
11. Notre Dame (40), Michigan State (45), Virginia (50), Pepperdine (51)
12. Kent (38), Creighton (57), Memphis (59), Missouri (65)
13. Butler (68), Central Connecticut State (69), Wyoming (74), UNC Wilmington (80)
14. Davidson (83), Valparaiso (91), Montana State (93), Georgia State (99)
15. Tennessee Tech (110), Hampton (116), McNeese State (117), Yale (127)
16. Rider (141), American (156), Vermont (170), Winthrop (246)/Alcorn State (222) play-in game
Ten who could fall out
BYU, Charlotte, Memphis, Michigan State, Mississippi, Missouri, Notre Dame, St. John's, Virginia, Wyoming
Ten who could fall in
Boston College (52), Minnesota (62), Rutgers (60), South Carolina (43), Southern Illinois (55), St. Bonaventure (61), St. Joseph's (77), Temple (87, if it wins A-10 tourney), Vanderbilt (47), Wisconsin (49)
Final Four favorites
Cincinnati, Duke, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Maryland
Others who could make a run
Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Kentucky, Marquette, Oklahoma
Five sleepers
Indiana, Miami, Southern Cal, Stanford, UCLA
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After Friday night's 63-62 victory over No. 9 Marquette, the odds are in UC's favor.
Here's why: The Bearcats are No. 4 in Saturday's Ratings Percentage Index. They finish the regular season at Louisville and at home against Memphis, then play the Conference USA tournament in Cincinnati at the Firstar Center (March 6-9). That means just one game out of the city, and even that's less than a two-hour bus ride away.
UC's competition for a No. 1 seed is teams from the Southeastern Conference, the Big 12 and Pac-10, all of whom keep beating up on each other.
There's a chance nobody is going to go undefeated the rest of the way.
No. 5-ranked Alabama, which lost to Arkansas on Wednesday, beat No. 8 Florida 65-64 on Saturday, and still plays at Mississippi, a probable NCAA team.
Florida still has to play Tennessee, then No. 12 Kentucky at Rupp Arena next Saturday. Another top-seed contender is sixth-ranked Oklahoma, which finishes against Iowa State, Colorado State and Colorado. The Cowboys would probably have to beat Kansas to win the Big 12 tournament.
Xavier should not have to sweat out Selection Sunday, which is just two weeks away. The Musketeers will be returning to the NCAA for the second straight year, this time under first-year coach Thad Matta, who took Butler to the NCAA last year.
The Musketeers should finish the regular season with three straight victories against Duquesne, LaSalle and Massachusetts -- which have a combined league record of 13-27 -- and earn the top seed in the league tournament. Getting to at least the finals of the A-10 tourney could get Xavier a sixth seed, but the Musketeers are going to be facing a slew of hungry and desperate teams, two of them in their home city of Philadelphia. A No. 8 seed is not out of the question if XU stumbles early in the tourney.
Saint Joseph's, Temple, St. Bonaventure and Dayton need to win the conference tournament to get an NCAA bid. St. Joseph's is the only team that might have a chance by just going deep into the tourney. If XU wins it, the Atlantic 10 might be looking at one team in the 65-team NCAA field.
The Conference USA tournament could also help decide how many bids that league gets. Cincinnati and Marquette are locks. Memphis has a better record than Charlotte, but the 49ers beat the Tigers, are finishing stronger and have a better RPI. That means a third bid for the conference would likely go to Charlotte.
Memphis might need an upset over the Bearcats (March 3) or over one of the top three teams in the league tourney to get in the NCAA. Otherwise, coach John Calipari's club will be a tad anxious come Selection Sunday.
Other “area” teams such as Kentucky, Ohio State and Indiana are also locks for the NCAA and should receive seeds no higher than No. 6.
The Wildcats, who seem to have more problems than just winning ballgames, look good for a No. 3 seed, but they can certainly go either way. Winning the SEC tournament could get them to No. 2. Stumbling badly could mean a No. 4. It's unlikely they'd fall higher than that.
Indiana and Ohio State should land somewhere between No. 3 and No. 6 in the seeding. What may effect either is Illinois, which is coming closer to fulfilling its preseason promise and make a late-season run with six straight victories. The Fighting Illini play Indiana on Tuesday night.
On the national scene, Duke, Kansas and Maryland have to be considered solid No. 1 seeds no matter what happens, and all three would be the teams to watch for as national championship contenders. They have seemed to play at another level all season.
Dick Vitale, who was the ESPN analyst for UC's game Friday night, said the Bearcats have the best defense in the country, without question. That alone gives Cincinnati a chance to advance in the NCAA.
And keep this in mind: Because of a change in NCAA Tournament procedures this year, if UC is seeded No. 1 in the West, which is almost probable if it gets a top seed, it could end up playing first- and second-round games in Pittsburgh, Chicago or St. Louis. Then if it wins two games, UC would go to San Jose, Calif., for the regional semifinals.
If the Bearcats want to turn into a team with Final Four potential, they are going to have to improve offensively.
Aside from Steve Logan, who has scored in double figures 49 straight games, the Bearcats struggle to get baskets from anyone else consistently. Donald Little was the only other player in double figures against Marquette, scoring 12 -- his highest output since Jan. 5. Leonard Stokes and Immanuel McElroy combined for just 14 points on 5-of-18 shooting.
“We've got to keep moving without the ball,” McElroy said after Friday night's game. “We just can't rely on (Logan) to score. If we miss a couple of shots, we've got to keep shooting. We've got to step up. I've been saying it all year.”
“We have a hard time scoring the ball, particularly when we don't make perimeter shots,” Huggins said. “... We have to make the open looks that we have.”
There are a couple other schools with local ties to watch.
Wake Forest should be receiving around a No. 6 seed under first-year coach Skip Prosser, formerly of Xavier. One team that has little margin for error is Pete Gillen's Virginia club, which has struggled mightily in the last month, losing 6 of 8 going into Saturday's game against Georgia Tech. The Cavaliers finish with No. 3 Duke and No. 2 Maryland and are looking at a losing record in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
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