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Thursday, March 07, 2002

Signs of economic rebound increasing




By Jeannine Aversa
The Associated Press

        WASHINGTON — The economy showed more signs of improving in January and early February, a Federal Reserve survey says, offering fresh evidence the nation is recovering from the recession.

        The Fed's latest survey of U.S. business activity, released Wednesday, suggested that signs of a rebound were becoming more widespread and now were evident in most areas.

        In its previous survey, the central bank struck a more cautious note, saying there were “scattered reports of improvement.”

        The new survey will be used when Federal Reserve policy-makers meet March 19 to discuss interest rate policy. Economists believe the Fed, which sliced interest rates 11 times last year, will hold rates steady as they did at their January meeting.

        “The Fed's survey tells me that the recession is very much behind us, but we are going to have a modest recovery,” said economist Clifford Waldman of Waldman Associates.

        In other encouraging economic news Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that orders to U.S. factories rose 1.6 percent in January, lifted by stronger demand for cars, computers and machinery. It was an additional sign that the battered manufacturing sector is turning a corner.

        A series of recent economic reports has indicated that the recession, which began in March 2001, probably had ended and will be recorded as one of the mildest in U.S. history.

        The economic view painted by Wednesday's reports is consistent with an economic assessment Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan gave Congress last week. His message: The U.S., bruised by the recession and the terrorist attacks, is on the road to recovery but Americans should not expect a red-hot rebound.

        Because consumers kept buying throughout the slump, they will have less pent-up demand. That means spending probably will not rise as quickly as in past rebounds, Mr. Greenspan and other economists said.

        The Fed survey said retailers in Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Dallas, Richmond, Kansas City and San Francisco reported “modest improvements” in sales, but for other areas sales were mixed. Some regions said that home furnishings and appliances were selling briskly, others cited solid car sales.

        Manufacturers, hardest hit by the ailing national economy, have been showing more indications of emerging from a 1 1/2-year slump.

        In the government's manufacturing report, orders for transportation equipment posted the biggest gain, rising 4.1 percent in January. Orders for cars went up a solid 0.8 percent.

        Excluding transportation equipment, factory orders rose 1.2 percent in January, the fourth increase in the past six months.

       



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- Signs of economic rebound increasing
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