Call it the Other March Madness. While basketball maniacs prowl the halls clutching tournament spreadsheets, Oscar watchers scour gossip columns for hints and trade guesswork about who will walk off with the gold at tonight's ceremony.

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What: 74th annual Academy Awards   When: 8 p.m. today   Where: Channels, 9, 2

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Multimedia coverage from Associated Press

        Though wildly popular, Oscar prognosticating is no more scientific than betting on which fly will land on a picnic table. The almost6,000 voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are a capricious lot, fully capable of defying any conventional wisdom. Remember 1997 when everyone, even the actual winner Juliette Binoche (The English Patient) thought Lauren Bacall was guaranteed to win best supporting actress for The Mirror Has Two Faces?

        Still and all, convention must be honored, and that means it's time for this year's calls on who should and will win what.

Best picture

        Oddsmakers put the intelligent, finely crafted A Beautiful Mind out in front, but Lord of the Rings is by no means out of it. Though the Academy rarely honors fantasy films, LOTR features the kind of ambition, emotion and epic sweep that have won before. Moulin Rouge won a lot of hearts in Hollywood by bringing back the musical, but remains a dark horse. So does Gosford Park. In The Bedroom has no chance.

        Should win: Lord of the Rings

        Will win: A Beautiful Mind

Best director

        Although Peter Jackson (LOTR) had the most technically demanding job this year, the race will be shaped by two nominees who are both due “make-goods”: Robert Altman (Gosford Park), collecting guilt-driven accolades after long years when he couldn't get invited to lunch, much less raise money for serious films; and Ron Howard, still Oscarless despite a long string of critical and box-office hits.

        Critics' darling David Lynch (Mullholland Drive) and action-man Ridley Scott (Black Hawk Down) could draw just enough votes to swing a very close race among the front runners.

        Should win: Peter Jackson

        Will win: Ron Howard

Best actor

        Until a few weeks ago, Russell Crowe (A Beautiful Mind) seemed sure to pull a Tom Hanks and win a second consecutive Oscar. Then, he reminded everyone of his decidedly non-Hanksian personal reputation by bullying a TV producer in London and insulting a British charity.

        Meanwhile, Julia Roberts, among others, has been working the phones to rally votes for Denzel Washington (Training Day), who also benefits from he-was-robbed sentiment over The Hurricane.

        All of which could mean unexpected good news for Tom Wilkinson (In the Bedroom). Sean Penn (I Am Sam) and Will Smith (Ali) will have to be content with nominations.

        Should win: Denzel Washington

        Will win: Denzel Washington

Best actress

        Another apparent cinch — Sissy Spacek for In the Bedroom — took a hit this month when the Screen Actors Guild gave its top actress honor to Halle Berry (Monster's Ball). SAG has some 90,000 members, and only a small fraction are also Academy voters, but the overlap could be enough for an upset.

        Dame Judi Dench (Iris) — being British and titled — is always a threat. Nicole Kidman (Moulin Rouge) has significant support, but Renee Zellweger (Bridget Jones' Diary) is the longest of shots.

        Should win: Sissy Spacek

        Will win: Sissy Spacek

Other awards of interest

        Best supporting actor: Should win: Ben Kingsley (Sexy Beast). Will win: Ian McKellen (Lord of the Rings).

        Best supporting actress: Should win: Jennifer Connelly (A Beautiful Mind). Will win: Jennifer Connelly.

        Best original screenplay: Should win: Memento. Will Win: Gosford Park.

        Best adapted screenplay: Should win: Lord of the Rings. Will Win: A Beautiful Mind.

Multimedia coverage from Associated Press

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