Sunday, May 12, 2002
State budget still shrinking
Lawmakers toy with options
By Spencer Hunt, shunt@enquirer.com
Enquirer Columbus Bureau
COLUMBUS Smokers could soon pay 50 cents more for a pack of cigarettes. Ohioans on Medicaid may have to dig in their own pockets to pay for dentists, optometrists and ambulance rides.
These are some of the grim options majority Republicans in the General Assembly will weigh this week in the face of a budget crisis that keeps getting worse.
Lawmakers looking for more money and spending cuts to erase a projected $1.25 billion hole in Ohio's $44 billion budget were recently told to work harder. New estimates show the deficit could hit $1.75 billion by June 30, 2003.
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GROWING DEFICIT
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The hole in Ohio's two-year $44 billion budget is growing as lawmakers look for ways to fill it. The increase in the deficit is the result of plummeting income and corporate-tax revenues. Here is a look at the problem, broken down by fiscal year (2002 fiscal year ends June 30):
March estimate
2002: $500 million
2003: $750 million
May estimate
2002: $750 million
2003: $1 billion
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That cranks up the pressure on legislative leaders who want to pass a budget fix by the end of May. Senate President Richard Finan, R-Evendale, said he's confident he can pass a bill containing a 50-cent-per-pack cigarette tax hike this week.
I learned long ago how to get the votes to get a bill passed, Mr. Finan said.
He also acknowledged some of his fellow Republicans are, at best, reluctant to raise any tax in an election year.
Tell me another alternative, fair and simple, Mr. Finan said.We'll talk.
Ohio's fiscal woes are the result of a national recession that's cost the state 40,000 manufacturing jobs. That sent income and corporate tax revenues plummeting and prompted lawmakers to cut back on spending and to raise some business taxes last December.
While Mr. Taft's budget officials project a new $1.25 billion shortfall, the bipartisan Legislative Service Commission told lawmakers Thursday the defict has grown another $500 million.
Tom Johnson, director of the governor's Office of Budget and Management, would not revise his estimate or say he agrees with the new numbers.
It is troubling that we cannot get an accurate figure of what the deficit is, said Sen. Mark Mallory, D-Cincinnati. That makes it difficult to come up with a plan to fill the hole.
A plan on the Senate's drawing board could tap $350 million or more from the state's rainy day fund. Another $175 million would be saved by separating Ohio's income tax from federal tax changes in the national economic stimulus program.
A proposed 50-cent increase to the state's 24-cent cigarette tax would raise another $400 million. Though Mr. Taft and Mr. Finan support it, a handful of Republican senators say they won't.
It's bad policy, bad for Ohioans.
House Republicans are waiting to see what the Senate will pass before they say anything.
I think the Senate ought to do the best job they can with what they've got to work with, said Rep. Gary Cates, R-West Chester.
Even less certain is what lawmakers will do to fill the remaining gap between their plan and the growing deficit.
One option is cutting Medicaid, the state's health insurance program for elderly, disabled and poor Ohioans. Medicaid serves one out of every eight Ohioans, and is one of the state's fastest growing costs.
Medicaid payments for prescription drugs rose 18 percent last year, far outstripping revenues. Tom Hayes, director of the Department of Job and Family Services, told lawmakers Ohio could be forced to spend $2 billion more on Medicaid in 2004 and 2005 if nothing changes.
Lawmakers looking for more short-term solutions may also look at services agency officials listed as optional in a memo sent to Mr. Taft and Senate Republicans.
A copy of that memo shows the state could save $45.3 million if it cut payments for ambulance trips along with dental, vision and chiropractic care.
Senate Republicans said they haven't reached any final decisions on Medicaid cuts.
Some cost containment in (Medicaid) is something that has to be taken seriously, said Sen. James Carnes, RSt. Clairsville, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee.
Other cost-cutting ideas include temporary layoffs of state workers and a series of business tax increases proposed by Mr. Taft last year including taxes on financial trusts and toll-free 800 numbers.
Those things don't help us right now, Mr. Finan said.
Despite these unresolved issues, Mr. Finan and Mr. Carnes insist their plan is to pass a bill out of the Senate Wednesday. That would help the Ohio General Assembly and Mr. Taft enact a plan with one month remaining in the current fiscal year.
Mr. Finan estimates the state could collect up to $30 million in cigarette taxes before July 1. That would give lawmakers an extra jump on the deficit, whether it's $1.25 billion or $1.75 billion.
If we don't get it out (this) week we're in deep trouble, Mr. Finan said.
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