MIDDLETOWN — Plans to turn 550 acres along Interstate 75 into a health and technology campus are meeting with some skepticism within the industry.

        “It won't be all health care research,” said Jerry Atkins of Montgomery-based Property Advisors Corp., which helps health and other companies find sites for major developments. “There's just not demand for that kind of project.”

        Middletown Regional Hospital, now located on 26 acres in central Middletown, wants to rebuild on 130 acres in Warren County. Officials also are promising to lure 420 acres worth of related health care, education, medical research and biotechnology partners. A new study by the University of Cincinnati says the entire project could generate $1.25 billion a year for the area economy.

        But that's assuming it plays out as Middletown Regional officials hope. They are counting on a new I-75 interchange at Greentree Road, an idea the Ohio Department of Transportation has so far been lukewarm about.

        The economic study also factors in an additional 437 acres worth of commercial and office development just north at the existing I-75 and Ohio 122 interchange. That's in spite of the fact that hospital leaders say they will not be involved with that development.

        Lastly, the study assumes the hospital's partners will create 1,750 new jobs, even though only two possible partners have been named so far. Warren County schools may join with the hospital to create a health science academy, and the hospital would like to bring in the YMCA.

        “It's all if they come,” Warren County Commissioner Larry Crisenbery said. “We haven't had one contact, not one. That's what scares all of us to death.”

        County commissioners have been among the project's most persistent critics, with their main complaint being the rural site that Middletown Regional has settled on. They and some residents also contend that plans for cutting-edge research facilities could easily degenerate into hundreds of acres of gas stations and fast-food restaurants.

        Some who do health care development in the region say they may have a point.

        Mr. Atkins, who helped UC Physicians settle on its new Tylersville Road site, said he can't imagine the hospital drawing more than 40 to 50 acres worth of health research facilities.

        “There's not a lot of dollars for research and development right now,” he said. “There's always lots of people to sign up, and when it comes time to spend the money, many of them back out.”

        Even Rose Vesper, Gov. Bob Taft's regional economic development representative, sounded a little doubtful: “550 acres is a lot of land.

        “It would depend on what kind of research and technology they were going to do,” said Ms. Vesper, a former state lawmaker who worked in the health industry for 30 years. “But there certainly is a need for more research.”

        Middletown Regional Vice President Larry James defended his hospital's “bold vision” more strongly.

        “We didn't get to where we are today, in terms of the caliber of our people and our institution, without taking bold steps.”

        But health care consultant Dale Bradford called Middletown Regional's plans speculative.

        “Is that the role of a not-for-profit hospital in the community — to take the lead in a speculative venture like this?” Mr. Bradford said. “Or is that the role of a real estate developer?”

        What does come, Mr. Atkins said, could take 10 to 15 years to build out. That would delay the payoff.

        The Middletown Economic Development Corp. — a partnership of the city and the Mid-Miami Valley Chamber of Commerce — commissioned a study of the possible economic impact by the UC Economics Center for Education and Research.

        Based on Middletown Regional's plans, the study predicted construction would employ 12,393, cost almost $1.1 billion and have a one-time economic impact of $1.9 billion.

        “I was kind of overwhelmed by the large numbers,” Middletown Economic Development Director Larry Wood said. “It's a wakeup call that we need to be doing everything we can to make this a reality.”

        Once up and running, the study said, the hospital, its partners and the Ohio 122 development combined would employ 11,355 for annual earnings of $373 million. Total economic impact would be $1.25 billion a year. The main recipients of tax revenue, according to the study, would be the area school districts, Warren County, and the cities of Middletown and Monroe.

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