LOUISVILLE — Louisville faces a stagnant future unless the city improves its public school system and better educates its work force, according to a report.

        Without improvements, the consequences for the new merged government could include young people leaving for more vibrant cities and high-tech jobs, according to the study by the Brookings Institution of Washington, D.C.

        “Louisville's mediocre education levels, thin talent stock, and modest university-research standing keep the region weak,” states the 80-page report resulting from an eight-month study.

        While Louisville remains a fairly compact city with thriving, distinct neighborhoods and a revitalized downtown, the report says sprawling development threatens to destroy what makes the community unique.

        Louisville “has an opportunity right now to build an inclusive and competitive city that is befitting a top-tier American city,” said Amy Liu, deputy director of the Brookings Center on Urban and Metropolitan Policy, which provided the study. “It has the choice right now to either hollow and sprawl out, like St. Louis or Atlanta, or it has the chance to do merger right and think about a comprehensive agenda.”

        The report was commissioned by the Greater Louisville Project, an initiative formed in fall 2000 as Jefferson County citizens voted to merge city and county governments.

        The report will be released today. An advance copy was obtained bythe Courier-Journal of Louisville.

        The report said that while scores are rising in most Jefferson County public schools, “achievement among many students remains low,” and “serious gaps remain between white and African American students, just as they do nationally.”

        About 81 percent of residents in the existing Louisville-Jefferson County have a high school diploma — compared to about 87 percent in Kansas City, Mo.; 86 percent in Columbus, Ohio; 84 percent in Indianapolis; and 82 percent in Cincinnati.

        Meanwhile, 22 percent of Louisville-Jefferson County's residents have a bachelor's degree, ranking it near the bottom with peer cities like Raleigh, N.C. (39 percent); Columbus (29); Nashville, Tenn. (27); Indianapolis (26); and Cincinnati (25).

        The report also concludes that Louisville is starkly divided by race and economics, with minorities and lower-income residents living in the west and southwest and white and higher-income families in the east.

        The divide is widening, according to the report, in part because few affordable homes for lower- and middle-income families are being built in the east.

        “This pattern leaves in its wake concentrations of poverty, social isolation and disinvestment near the core,” the report says, “and may be hastening the middle-class exodus that can destabilize neighborhoods, lengthen commutes and worsen traffic.”

        The report gives suggestions such as getting 5,000 people to move downtown in the next decade and forming an education committee, modeled after Kentucky's Prichard Committee for Academic Excellence.

        In other areas, the report's recommendations are more nebulous, such as improving and coordinating land planning between Jefferson County and its border counties.

        Several political, civic and education leaders who were briefed last week about the report said that while its conclusions are not surprising, it may provide a broad blueprint for the new merged government.

        Mayor Dave Armstrong said the report falls short because it doesn't recognize the strides the city has made in recent years, including downtown housing and improving neighborhoods.

        Former Mayor Jerry Abramson, the Democratic nominee for metro mayor, said he's encouraged by the study. “The good news is that we are in the enviable position to chart our future,” he said, describing the report as a “bible, at least for information and reference.”

        Jack Early, Republican candidate for metro mayor, criticized the report as old news. “Most of the stuff they incorporated into the study I already knew,” he said, while other things were left out. For example, while the report dealt with transportation issues, it didn't discuss Louisville International Airport.

        Bryan Bunch, an independent candidate for metro mayor, said he supports several recommendations, including revitalizing downtown and having neighborhoods develop long-range plans.

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