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Wednesday, July 31, 2002

Consumers show nervousness


But despite turbulent month, confidence relatively high

By Peter Svensson
The Associated Press

        NEW YORK - Consumers' confidence in the economy was buffeted this month by the stock market drop, corporate scandals and the slow increase in available jobs, a private research group reported Tuesday.

        The New York-based Conference Board said its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 97.1 from a revised 106.3 in June. Analysts had been expecting a reading of 101.5.

        However, economists said consumer confidence was still relatively strong, and the decline in the index was mostly an indicator of a poor stock market for most of the month.

        “This shows that consumers were definitely shaken by the stock market sell-off,” said Mark Vitner, an economist at Wachovia Securities in Charlotte, N.C.

        “The rebound probably came too late to help out the confidence numbers.”

        July's figure is the lowest since February, when the index fell to 95.0 during congressional hearings on the Enron scandal. It is still well ahead of October's figure of 85.3.

        The index compares results to its base year, 1985, when it stood at 100.

        The index is widely watched as a measure of attitudes toward the economy. However, economists say it is not always a good indicator of trends in consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of the nation's economic activity.

        “For some time, consumer confidence has been a backward-looking indicator of what the stock market has done,” said Brian Jordan, economist at Banc One Investment Advisors in Columbus, Ohio.

        “To this point, there have been very few signs that consumers are pulling back significantly on spending,” he said. “We are far away from a recession.”

        The consumer confidence index is based on a monthly survey of 5,000 U.S. households.

       



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