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Saturday, October 05, 2002

Local stocks mimic national drop


Same factors push both off financial cliffs

By Amy Higgins ahiggins@enquirer.com
The CCincinnati Enquirer

        Weak corporate profits and investor fears know no geography. The same factors driving the nation's broad stock market to its lowest point in five years also gave the Enquirer 80 Index of local interest stocks its worst quarterly performance since the measure was created three years ago.

        During the third quarter, which ended Monday, 75 of the 80 public companies either based in, or having significant operations in Greater Cincinnati lost value. The Enquirer 80 ended the third quarter down 17.8 percent.

        “The market is clearly exploring the bottom here,” said Marilyn Osborn, portfolio manager at Bartlett & Co.

        Indeed, as bad as the local index fared, it was roughly even with major market indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 17.9 percent and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 17.6 percent.

        And those measures held up better than the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, which declined 19.9 percent.

        “We have a much lower exposure to tech,” Ms. Osborn said, explaining why the local index didn't fall as much as the Nasdaq.

        Still, some local interest stocks didn't just fall - they were cut in half. Electronic Data Systems fell 62 percent, Milacron declined 56 percent, Delta Air Lines dropped 54 percent, and Kendle International lost 51 percent.

        Even within Greater Cincinnati's diversified economy, there is a common tie: Declining earnings.

        EDS announced in mid-September that its profit for the third quarter would be a fifth of what it earlier said it would earn.

        Milacron announced in July a wider second quarter net loss than analysts expected, 93 cents instead of 26 cents.

        Delta Air Lines last week forecast it would lose $350 million in the third quarter, more than its $259 million loss a year ago.

        Kendle International reported in August a net loss of $367,000. But its stock was more greatly affected two weeks earlier when Pfizer offered to buy out to Pharmacia, and analysts' worries that the merger of the two drug-makers would hurt business for companies that provide them research and marketing services, like Kendle.

        But the profit news wasn't all bad in the last three months. Indeed, the stocks that performed the best during the three months were those of companies reporting growing earnings.

        Companies like Procter & Gamble and Johnson & Johnson “sell things with predictable, steady growth,” Ms. Osborn said. “These guys are rewarded in this kind of environment.”

        P&G ended the quarter up 0.1 percent, and J&J gained 3.5 percent. AT&T Corp. and Clear Channel Communications also were among the rare winners reporting increasing profits and seeing stock price gains.

        Peoples Community Bancorp, the 3-year-old West Chester banking company, gained a whopping 14.8 percent in the three months. Company treasurer Thomas Noe attributes the stock's success to the bank's continuing growth.

        Peoples announced in July a 20 percent increase in net income in the second quarter, mostly from increased interest income and strong loan originations.

        “Our company has been growing pretty rapidly - mostly by word of mouth,” Mr. Noe said. “We have had record quarters all year, and we're going to have a record year. We don't expect anything to change.”

       



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