LOS ANGELES - Even if the West Coast dock shutdown ends soon, many U.S. factories might have to shut down anyway because the parts they need will be caught in a huge backlog of cargo, business leaders said Friday.

        “It's a foregone conclusion that assembly lines are going to close down,” said Robin Lanier, executive director of the West Coast Waterfront Coalition, which represents retailers and transportation companies that rely on the ports.

        Even if President Bush immediately invokes the Taft-Hartley Act and declares an 80-day cooling-off period, manufacturers will not be able to avoid interruptions on their assembly lines, she said.

        “The challenge is going to be the chaos and bedlam on the water as they try to pull things out,” said Michael Damer, spokesman for New United Motor Manufacturing near the port of Oakland, which has been idle since Wednesday, halting the assembly of Toyota and Pontiac cars and trucks.

        Household names in American manufacturing might run out of parts and be forced to shut down their assembly lines in the next few days, said Darren McKinney, spokesman for the National Association of Manufacturers.

        “They are running up against the wall very quickly,” he said.

        Nissan and Boeing were among the companies feeling the pinch from the shutdown that began Sunday at the nation's 29 West Coast ports in Washington, Oregon and California. The shutdown is costing the U.S. economy an estimated $2 billion a day.

        Almost 200 ships laden with Asian cargo were left waiting along the coast, cutting off supplies for manufacturers and retailers awaiting holiday goods. Meanwhile, grain shipments bound for export are sitting in warehouses, trains from the Midwest have stopped moving cargo across the country, and growers of perishable goods such as apples and citrus worry that their harvests will not reach lucrative Asian markets.

        Friday, dockworkers and management met for a second day with a federal mediator in an effort to reach a new contract.

        Business groups pushed for government intervention.

        The Pacific Maritime Association, which represents shipping companies and terminal operators, locked out the 10,500-member longshoremen's union, claiming the dockworkers had engaged in a slowdown. The main issue is whether jobs created by new technology will be unionized.

        Industries most at risk during the lockout are automotive, clothing, toy manufacturing, food and agriculture and electronics.

        Toyota cuts back

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