By James Pilcher
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Prices at gas pumps across the Tristate have been climbing for the last month - a time when they normally decline - because of two major storms hitting the refinery-rich Gulf Coast during the past month and the impending threat of war in the Middle East.

Gas market experts say Americans should get used to it, especially if the talk of war with Iraq becomes reality.

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• Tristate gas prices • Cincinnati trends • Northern Ky. trends

They don't, however, agree on how big the price increases could be or how long they could last.

"We definitely could see retail prices go well above $2 a gallon," said Dan Davis, president of DataStream Market Intelligence, an Oklahoma-based market research firm that specializes in retail gas prices. "It's all linked to how long it appears that the war will last, though."

On the Ohio side of Greater Cincinnati, a gallon of regular unleaded cost $1.46 Friday, according to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report, down slightly from $1.49 Tuesday. That compares with $1.21 a year ago.

In Northern Kentucky, Friday's price was $1.49 a gallon, compared with $1.30 a year ago.

Friday's national average was nearly $1.44 a gallon, compared with $1.36 last year.

Tristate drivers have noticed the higher prices.

"It's crazy! This is 15 cents a gallon cheaper than the price I saw this morning in Fairfax," said Stuart Deadrick of Mariemont, who filled up his Volvo station wagon with $1.34-a-gallon gas at the Lawrenceburg SuperAmerica station.

"I came over to Perfect North to pick up my skis, and my wife told me I'd better buy gas while I was here," Mr. Deadrick said. "Around Fairfax, the price went up 10 cents a gallon ... since yesterday."

The reasons for the increases are twofold.

First, there was a run-up in wholesale prices linked with the recent two storms to lash the Gulf Coast, where there are several major oil refineries. The market has yet to adjust back to normal levels after those increases.

Meanwhile, the continued unrest in the Middle East and the uncertainty about Iraq has pushed the cost of crude oil to nearly $30 a barrel.

About $7 to $8 of the current crude oil price is based on the uncertainty, said Tom Kloza, publisher of the Lakewood, N.J.-based Oil Price Information Service's daily newsletter. However, he does not anticipate that war with Iraq would push those prices up to $40 - the levels hit briefly during the first Gulf War in 1991.

Those higher oil prices pushed retail gas prices to between $1.70 and $1.80, although those prices soon fell as it became apparent that the war would end quickly.

"It's kind of like, "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me,'" Mr. Kloza said. "There were a lot of people who lost their shirt, because those $40 prices didn't last long and were quickly back down to $24 a barrel."

Mr. Kloza continued to say that he also anticipated a price hike if the United States goes to war, but retail prices wouldn't go much above $1.60 a gallon, even though there is much higher demand domestically than there was 11 years ago (the domestic gas market set a new record this summer by selling more than 9 million barrels of gas a day on average).

"I am willing to bet that we will hit $2 sometime in the next two springs and summers, however," Mr. Kloza said. "Prices will get high again, but it will be seasonal."

Although Mr. Kloza said that the country's gas reserves give drivers plenty of supply, Mr. Davis said another complication could arise if the northern United States has a harsh winter. That would force refiners to make more home heating oil, diverting capacity from making gasoline.

"If that is coupled with a war in the Middle East, then it could get tough," Mr. Davis said.

But other local gas customers seem resigned to the possibility of higher prices.

People have noticed a gradual price rise, but those like Keith Brisbin of Miamitown seem resigned to paying it.

"You've got to roll with the flow," said Mr. Brisbin, who filled his pickup truck at the Marathon station near his home.

Enquirer contributor Jenny Callison assisted with this story.

E-mail jpilcher@enquirer.com