COLUMBUS — The question is everything when it comes to predicting how voters will react to a ballot initiative that would send thousands of Ohio drug offenders into treatment instead of prison.

A poll of more than 1,041 likely voters released Tuesday by WCPO-TV (Channel 9) shows a strong majority, 60 percent, would support the proposed constitutional amendment on the Nov. 5 ballot. That's a switch from two previous polls showing that more than 50 percent of voters would oppose Issue 1.

What's the difference?

The WCPO poll, conducted by New Jersey-based SurveyUSA, asked voters if they would support changing Ohio laws to let nonviolent drug offenders choose treatment instead of jail time. The survey had a sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Two previous newspaper-sponsored polls asked voters if they would support a drug treatment option that would cost $247 million over the next seven years.

That cost figure, mentioned at the outset of the ballot summary voters will read Nov. 5, is considered key in driving down public support.

While both questions are factually accurate, the issue of which is the best one to ask is questionable.

“We wanted to come up with something that was neutral,” said Joe Shipman, director of election polling for SurveyUSA and the man who helped craft the Issue 1 question.

Mr. Shipman said the SurveyUSA pollsters didn't include Issue 1's cost for several reasons. For one, it would make the question longer and increase the likelihood that people might hang up on the automated system conducting the poll.

Another factor was whether people would actually take the time to read the ballot summary. Mr. Shipman assumes most won't.

“Most voters are going to have an idea in advance of how they are going to vote,” he said. “The issue of how much this would cost or save (taxpayers) is vague.”

Issue 1 would cost Ohioans $247 million over the next seven years. Supporters of the initiative said taxpayers will save millions more in reduced prison, jail, police, court, health and welfare costs.

“At the worst, it pays for itself,” said Ed Orlett, manager of the Ohio Campaign for New Drug Policies, the group lobbying for Issue 1.

Jenny Camper, spokeswoman for a coalition of state and local officials opposing Issue 1, said the SurveyUSA question is misleading because it doesn't provide essential facts. She said taxpayers will reject the proposed amendment as too expensive and harmful to Ohio's court system.

“Our assumption is that people will read the ballot summary,” Ms. Camper said. “Even just the preamble paragraph is a good nutshell version of what this amendment will do.”

Issue 1 supporters say it's the ballot summary that's misleading, because it doesn't mention savings. That issue aside, Mr. Orlett said the SurveyUSA poll shows most voters support the concept of treatment if cost isn't an issue.

After some internal debate in the Issue 1 camp, television ads supporting the amendment are scheduled to air in the Youngstown market this week. Mr. Orlett said ads may soon appear in other Ohio media markets, including Cincinnati.

Competing television ads from Ohioans Against Unsafe Drug Laws, the opposition group, are also expected, most likely in the final week of the campaign.

Mr. Shipman said the election results will ultimately show which question was best.

“We're very concerned about how we should represent a ballot measure,” he said. “There are different ways of doing it. We prefer the way we do it.”

E-mail shunt@enquirer.com

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