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Friday, November 8, 2002

Campaign 2006


The governor's race begins

map

Tuesday's election may seem like it just rearranged the chairs in Columbus, but what it really did was set up the starting gate for the 2006 gubernatorial race.

I should say it set up the gate for the Republican horses. If there is a Democratic nag out there somewhere it hasn't yet reared up on its hind legs. In fact it hasn't even whinnied.

But that's OK, for now at least it looks like the Republicans will provide plenty of competition all by themselves.

Starting at the pole is Jim Petro, two-term auditor and now attorney general-elect. Mr. Petro wanted to be attorney general before he settled for auditor eight years ago. Now he wants to be governor, but he has to wait while Bob Taft has a second term. He made it clear before this election that he doesn't plan on being attorney general for eight years. He got Joe Deters to agree to settle for another term as treasurer only by assuring him that he would move on in four years and let Mr. Deters have a shot at attorney general in 2006.

Mr. Petro is honest, hard working and an early favorite to be the candidate of the Republican establishment.

But Secretary of State Ken Blackwell hopes that by the time the voters endure eight years of the bland Mr. Taft they might not find an "establishment" candidate so appealing. If that's the case, Mr. Blackwell will be ready to step in as an alternative. Four years ago Mr. Blackwell, then state treasurer, wanted to run for governor, but outgoing Gov. George Voinovich made it clear that Mr. Taft was the candidate with his blessing. Gov. (now Sen.) Voinovich was hugely popular and Mr. Blackwell decided to avoid a party fight and step into the secretary of state's office.

The next four years will bring some harsh economic realities to Ohio. There is a massive state budget deficit on the horizon and Mr. Taft will have to cut programs and probably raise taxes to deal with it. Mr. Blackwell is betting that in four years a blessing from the governor may not carry much weight with voters. Look for him to position himself as the "anti-Taft" Republican.

Further down in the standings is the hugely popular and generally underestimated Betty Montgomery. Ms. Montgomery came out of nowhere to unseat Democrat Lee Fisher for attorney general eight years ago. Unable to run for a third term as AG, she had the voters move her over to state auditor last week. The big boys in the party tend to talk over her when discussing the governor's job, but if they check Tuesday's returns they will find she pulled more votes than any other statewide candidate. According to the secretary of state's Web site, she had 1,974,767 votes, compared to 1,971,812 for Mr. Petro and 1,795,647 for Mr. Blackwell. Gov. Taft pulled 1,831,110 and Mr. Deters trailed the pack with 1,638,001.

With numbers like those, and a chance to keep her name in front of the voters as state auditor, Ms. Montgomery may decide she's the statewide Republican with the greatest claim on the governor's mansion next time around.

There are other names not yet mentioned who bear some consideration. U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine is occasionally rumored to be interested in a return to Columbus, where he once served as lieutenant governor under Mr. Voinovich. Then there is Jeanette Bradley, elected lieutenant governor on Tuesday, the first African-American woman to reach such a post anywhere in the country. What happens to her when Mr. Taft leaves office? The racetrack touts over in the statehouse stable probably are calculating odds on a long shot or two. Speaker of the House Larry Householder just won his fourth and final (thanks to term limits) term, so he will likely be looking around for a new opportunity.

Of course it is early yet to be thinking of 2006. In fact the only people who are thinking about it are the prospective candidates, columnists and other assorted political junkies. The people who really decide these things - voters - have more immediate concerns - like everything else that will happen between now and 2006.

Contact David Wells at 768-8310; fax: 768-8610; e-mail: dwells@enquirer.com. Cincinnati.Com keyword: Wells




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