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Tuesday, December 3, 2002

Busy shoppers buoy holiday retail spirits


Experts say gains marginal, holiday spree could falter

By Randy Tucker
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Retailers nationwide posted record sales over the Thanksgiving weekend as consumers gobbled up post-turkey bargains on one of the busiest shopping days of the year.

About three out of four consumers hit their favorite stores over the weekend, drawn by early-bird specials and other holiday bargains, according to a survey released Monday by the National Retail Federation. One report showed sales up 12.3 percent Friday compared with the previous post-Thanksgiving Friday.

"Shoppers did not waste any time this weekend looking for great deals in the wee hours of the morning," NRF president and CEO Tracy Mullin said. "We attribute this to a combination of factors including six fewer shopping days, pushing consumers to shop early and retailers doing an excellent job of advertising great values for consumers."

The momentum generated by the holiday weekend's retail feeding frenzy carried over into the beginning of the week, with retailers reporting continued strong demand for clothing, electronics, jewelry, books and toys Monday.

Tiffany Mahan of Ludlow missed out on the Thanksgiving weekend sales, but she made up for lost time early Monday afternoon at the Target store in Florence.

"I took today off so I could beat the crowds, but it didn't happen that way," Ms. Mahan said as she left the store with a cart full of Christmas goodies. "I went to the (Florence) mall first before I came here, and it was already busy."

Amy Fry of Fort Mitchell said she finished much of her Christmas shopping before Thanksgiving, but she and her 4-year-old son, Spencer, were still at it Monday.

"I wanted to make sure I got the kids out of the way first, but I'm not finished yet," she said. "It's still early."

While such comments offer pessimistic retailers reason to hope, their surprisingly strong showing this past weekend doesn't mean that they can expect it to last.

Most retail analysts still are predicting only a marginal gain over last year's holiday sales, with projected increases ranging anywhere from 2 percent to 4 percent.

And consumers are still uneasy about many things that could lead them to rein in spending this holiday season.

According to a Gallup Poll, terrorism and the economy remain the two issues weighing most heavily on Americans' minds, and these continue to dwarf all other issues as the most important problems facing the United States.

Another terrorist attack similar to Sept. 11, 2001, or the outbreak of war with Iraq could easily derail consumer spending and make any previous prognostications null and void, said Jack Gifford, a retail-marketing professor at Miami University.

"The consumer psyche can change overnight, and there's still a lot of uncertainty out there," Mr. Gifford said.

Still, the Thanksgiving weekend was a boost for retailers who have lamented the industry's dismal outlook.

Nationwide, retail sales for Friday alone were an estimated $7.4 billion, up a healthy 12.3 percent from last year, according to a report from ShopperTrak RCT, a point-of sale retail tracking and consulting firm in Chicago.

Saturday fell off slightly, but still rose a respectable 9 percent to $5.2 billion, according to ShopperTrak.

As anticipated, discount chains were the big winners.

Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, posted its biggest-ever one-day sales tally Friday - a whopping $1.43 billion, up 14 percent from last year's $1.25 billion.

J.C. Penney, which operates department stores and the Eckerd drugstore chain, said its Thanksgiving weekend sales reached a record, but did not disclose figures.

Sharper Image Corp. said Monday that on preliminary data, sales at stores open at least a year rose 27 percent for the three days after Thanksgiving, and total store sales were up by 41 percent.

Online retail sales jumped 61 percent to $234.2 million on the Friday after Thanksgiving, according to Bizrate.com, a price comparison service.

Department stores didn't do as well, but still benefited.

"We were cranking at 6 a.m. Friday, and the stores were busy all weekend," said Ellen Fruchtman, a spokeswoman for Lazarus department stores. "They seemed to be driven by the door-buster sales. They came with coupons in hand, and they were shopping with a purpose."

E-mail rtucker@enquirer.com.



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