By Randy Tucker
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Melissa Burke of Mount Orab looks at a pair of gold earrings Thursday with sales associate Sandra Thornton in the downtown Lazarus. (Glenn Hartong photo) | ZOOM |

With Christmas just a few days away, frenzied shoppers are expected to jam the Tristate's malls and shopping centers this weekend in a down-to-the-wire scramble for last-minute gifts.

And retailers are once again counting on the late surge to revive sales in an otherwise lackluster holiday shopping season, which has many merchants biting their nails.

"This weekend will be exceedingly important dollar-wise,'' said Michael P. Niemira, a veteran retail analyst and vice president of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd. "It can make or break the month, and ultimately, the season for retailers.''

Mr. Niemira said the week before Christmas, including the final weekend, can account for as much as 40 percent of overall holiday sales. Those sales, in turn, can equal more than a third of many retailers' sales and profits for the year.

The last-minute dash for gifts has been so intense in recent years that the Saturday before Christmas has overtaken the day after Thanksgiving as the busiest shopping day of the year, in terms of sales. Much of the traffic is driven by bargain shoppers such as Karen Matthews of Springdale.

"Every year, I say I'm going to finish my Christmas shopping early, and every year, I end up waiting until the last minute to do a lot of it,'' said Ms. Matthews, who was browsing the aisles at the Lazarus store at Tri-County Mall this week. "Part of it is just me being lazy and procrastinating. But you generally find the best deals just before Christmas, and that's important, too.''

In the past several years, retailers have been forced to slash prices to move merchandise in the final days before Christmas as more and more consumers hold out for the best bargains.

This year, retailers - responding to tight-fisted consumers and a holiday sales season shortened by six days compared to last year - have been compelled to offer strong sales and promotions throughout the holiday season.

The strategy will likely put pressure on retailers' profits at the end of the quarter, but most experts expect the discounting will continue because retailers don't want large inventories on their shelves after Christmas.

"Retailers have two goals: to make sales and clear winter inventory,'' said Scott Krugman, a spokesman for the National Retail Federation (NRF), the nation's largest retail trade group. "Consumers can certainly expect deep price cuts this weekend because retailers don't have much time left to accomplish those goals.''

Carol Sanger, a spokeswoman for Cincinnati-based Federated Department Stores - the nation's largest department-store operator - said the company will "pull out all the stops'' this weekend to ensure a successful holiday season.

The parent of Lazarus, Macy's and Bloomingdale's is counting on robust sales between now and Christmas to meet its modest sales expectations, which are projected to fall at the low end of a range between unchanged and down 2.5 percent.

Like last year, the holiday shopping season got off to a hot start over the Thanksgiving weekend before falling into an early-December slump, largely because of snowstorms and nasty weather across the country.

Retail sales dropped almost 5 percent in the first week of December, compared to the same period a year ago, according to ShopperTrak RCT, which tracks weekly retail sales.

Sales have rebounded somewhat going into the final weekend before Christmas.

If last-minute Christmas shopping falls short of expectations, the sales gain for the combined November and December months - the traditional holiday shopping period - could fall below 3 percent, he said.

Most economists and retail analysts have been predicting a 3 to 4 percent increase in holiday sales. One bright spot for retailers relying on last-minute shoppers to meet holiday sales goals is that most consumers still haven't finished their Christmas shopping.

The latest installment of the NRF's 2002 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey found that the average consumer had completed only 49.3 percent of his or her shopping as of Dec. 12. Only 15 percent of consumers were finished with their holiday shopping, and almost one-third, or 30.5 percent, had completed 10 percent or less, the survey found.

The majority of last-minute holiday shoppers - 56.6 percent - plan to frequent discounters for final gifts, according to the NRF survey. The survey said 32.5 percent expect to shop at traditional department stores, 25.7 percent will visit specialty retailers, and 28.1 percent will shop on the Internet.

But with the window for shipping running out, Internet sales have probably already reached their peak. As of Monday, Internet sales were already up 25 percent or more from the same point in last year's season, according to ComScore, a national e-business research firm.

Last week, Internet sales hit an all-time weekly record of $2.2 billion, 37 percent higher than the same week a year ago, according to ComScore.

But, just like brick-and-mortar stores, online merchants have had to lure shoppers with bargains, particularly free shipping deals.

The average price for online purchases dropped to $138 from $145 a year ago, Biz.Rate.com said.

E-mail rtucker@enquirer.com.