By Amy Higgins
The Cincinnati Enquirer

A show of U.S. military might typically brings out the bulls on Wall Street - but history probably won't repeat itself this time, investing experts say.

"We have legitimate concerns with the economy that will remain post-military action," said Jim Russell, Fifth Third Bank director of equity research.

Indeed, investors had little reaction to the start of American airstrikes Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 21.15 points, or 0.26 percent, to 8286.60, after being down as much as 134.59 in the morning.

INFOGRAPHIC

• The stock market in times of conflict

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index also fell as much as 15 points at the opening, but recovered to close up 1.82 points, or 0.21 percent, to 875.84.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1402.77, up 5.70 points, or 0.41 percent. The tech-heavy index had been down as much as 25.17 points.

Local stocks also vacillated, with the Enquirer 80 Index falling 2.7 points before closing up 0.92 points, or 0.52 percent, at 177.07.

Stocks might have fallen after the opening bell because of rumors of fires at Iraqi oilfields. They recovered when reports showed only minimal damage at three wells.

Stocks typically have a few uncertain days at the start of military action. But long-term reaction has typically been positive.

Consider:

• June 1942: U.S. troops turn back the Japanese at Midway Island, a turning point in the war in the Pacific - and the beginning of a near 40 percent increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the next year.

• June 1944: The Allies invade Normandy - and the Dow surges almost 18 percent in the next 12 months.

• January 1991: The Dow gains 17 percent in the first month of U.S. airstrikes against Iraq in the Persian Gulf war.

• October 2001: Investors greet the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan with a 12 percent gain in the Dow, sending it again over the 10,000 by December.

"We're less convinced that's going to happen in a big way this time," Fifth Third's Russell said.

Sluggish corporate profits and high unemployment will continue to hold back stock prices, he said.

Pete Sorrentino, chief investment officer at Bartlett & Co. investment firm downtown, also said the Iraqi war could be messier and costlier than recent U.S. military actions - and that will perpetuate the stock market's volatility.

"It will not be as easy as people think," he said. "We'll get a bloody nose somewhere."

E-mail ahiggins@enquirer.com.