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Saturday, March 22, 2003

Area job losses understated


But latest data show hiring on the upswing

By John Byczkowski
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Greater Cincinnati lost thousands more jobs during the recession than originally reported, according to revisions of jobs data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

But the figures also show that the local jobs market has begun to turn around and has been gaining jobs since September.

INFOGRAPHIC
Cincinnati Economic Indicators
The new data show that when the recession was at its worst in December 2001, the region had lost more than 22,100 jobs from a year earlier and that the heaviest job losses came over a span of nine months, from October 2001 through June 2002.

Ohio's Department of Jobs and Family Services originally reported that that the losses weren't as deep - down about 17,000 in December 2001 from a year earlier, with the worst losses coming over just four months. "There's no doubt that with the downturn being as sharp as it was in Ohio, quite frankly we did not fully catch the degree of the downturn," said Keith Ewald, chief of labor market information for the department.

The revisions show how painful the recession has been on the local economy, especially in manufacturing, said Richard Stevie, an economist and general manager of market analysis at Cinergy Corp. in Cincinnati.

"That is the component of the local economy that really took the brunt of the recession," he said. "Quite frankly, I didn't see that the decline in manufacturing had stopped." Local figures show manufacturing employment peaked in May 2000 at 146,300, and by January had fallen by 18,000.

Local labor numbers are revised each February. The revisions make up for several quirks in the surveys that collect numbers on jobs. Small businesses tend to be undercounted, so early counts underestimate the number of jobs gained or lost in the swings of the economy.

This round of revisions found that small businesses lost more jobs than first thought. Keith Leggett, an economist with the American Bankers Association, said many large firms have outsourced business to small companies. When the economy turned down, the big firms cut that business, rather than lay off their own workers.

"Due to all the outsourcing, it's small business that's had to do all the adjusting" when business slowed, and that led to a loss of jobs by small companies, he said.

Myrita Craig, a small-business adviser with the Greater Cincinnati Chamber of Commerce, said owners of small businesses remain cautious. "A lot of the companies that they are working with, they are seeing the larger businesses cut back," she said.

There are signs of a turnaround. The revised jobs data show the number of jobs has been growing for four months. Stevie said there's even signs of change in manufacturing: Local companies report new orders and production rising, and construction data show some factories are expanding.

"It looks like we're finally starting to turn the corner," he said.

E-mail johnb@enquirer.com.



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