By JENNIE REES
The (Louisville, Ky.) Courier-Journal

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Didn't get enough frustration with your NCAA Tournament bracket? There's more to be had with handicapping this year's Kentucky Derby field.

With almost every horse facing a final prep before the May 3 Derby, two horses have emerged as clear No. 1 seeds: Florida Derby winner Empire Maker, who will have his final prep in Aqueduct's Grade I Wood Memorial on April 12, and Atswhatimtalknbout, a fast-closing second by a nose in the San Felipe and the favorite for Saturday's Grade I Santa Anita Derby.

Empire Maker romped to a 9 3/4-length victory in the Grade I Florida Derby two weeks ago. Atswhatimtalknbout still has to win a stakes, but his pedigree (by A.P. Indy) and closing style shout Kentucky Derby.

"Empire Maker is bred to run three and a half weeks," said Jennifer Pedersen, trainer of New York Hero. "That's one horse who looks like the real deal."

Gary Mandella, trainer of Man Among Men, who beat Empire Maker in Santa Anita's Sham Stakes in February, concurs but added, "Ron Ellis' horse (Atswhatimtalknbout) has to be one of the better horses around. He looks the part, he's bred to get the distance and he's getting better all the time. From there, it gets a little tougher."

Beyond Empire Maker and Atswhatimtalknbout, the other horses considered among the favorites all have major questions.

Peace Rules looked good winning the Louisiana Derby, but even his trainer, Bobby Frankel, questions whether Peace Rules is a true 1 1/4-mile horse. Still, he's going to give the colt a chance to earn a Derby berth alongside stablemate Empire Maker by running in Keeneland's Grade I Toyota Blue Grass April 12.

Kafwain, the most accomplished at age 2 of those still in the hunt, will try the Santa Anita Derby. Even though he was second in the 1 1/8-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile to now sidelined stablemate and champion Vindication, Kafwain remains a question at longer distances. Buddy Gil, who like New York Hero was made a late Triple Crown nominee for $6,000, upset Atswhatimtalknbout in the San Felipe. Santa Catalina winner Domestic Dispute finished fifth, and Man Among Men seventh. Man Among Men bled in that race, but Mandella believes a budding virus contributed.

Atswhatimtalknbout has something to prove. He never raced until Jan. 4 -- and only one horse has ever won the Derby without racing at 2. But if there is a year to buck history, this might be it, given the lack of accomplished 2-year-olds in the Derby hunt and the number of lightly raced contenders.

"I think my horse is a pretty good horse," Ellis said. "I don't think my horse will have any trouble with a mile-and-a-quarter, and I don't think Empire Maker will. There are a lot of 3-year-olds who are really talented, but they're just questionable at a mile-and-a-quarter."

Some rivals even wonder if Empire Maker might have a chink as he was difficult to load in the gate and got quite lathered up before the Florida Derby.

"Empire Maker in the Florida Derby stamped himself as the horse to beat," said trainer Todd Pletcher, who has Indy Dancer, Aristocat and Lion Tamer in the Derby hunt. "But these things change from week to week, race to race. I wouldn't think anybody would be willing to concede anything to anybody at this stage." Churchill Downs-based trainer Tom Amoss, who will have Lone Star Sky in the Illinois Derby and Cat Genius in either the Arkansas Derby or Keeneland's Lexington, cautions against getting caught up with one or two horses.

"I think the biggest mistake we make every Derby is the hot horse," Amoss said. "There is still a big story to be told before the first Saturday in May, stories to unfold over the next two weeks."