By JENNIE REES
The (Louisville, Ky.) Courier-Journal

There's an old saw in racing that says if there's one outstanding horse to beat, you take a shot with your horse anyway because so many things can happen.

Empire Maker, the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial winner, appears to be just such a dominant horse. But less than 20 days before the Kentucky Derby, the field appears likely to come in under the 20-horse maximum.

Eleven horses can be considered definite for the Derby with an additional nine under varying degrees of consideration.

This does not take into account owners and trainers who say they aren't running but change their minds. The best horses so far declared out of the Derby are Aventura winner Dynever, Florida Derby runner-up Trust N Luck, Lane's End winner and Wood fourth-place finisher New York Hero, Wood third-place finisher Kissin Saint and Tampa Bay Derby winner and Arkansas Derby fourth-place finisher Region of Merit.

On the other hand, there's almost always some attrition during the final weeks as horses get sick or are injured.

Saturday's Grade II Coolmore Lexington at Keeneland and even Pimlico's ungraded Federico Tesio could produce Derby starters but also could eliminate horses from consideration.

Derby odds-maker Mike Battaglia said Empire Maker is likely to be 6-5 if it's a 20-horse field as he suspects, making Juddmonte Farms' colt the heaviest favorite since Arazi finished eighth at 4-5 in 1992. Asked whether that's a reflection of Empire Maker's ability or of his opposition, Battaglia said it's a combination.

It's tough to say how much the presence of Empire Maker is affecting field size because other factors are coming into play, including injuries that knocked out last season's three most accomplished 2-year-olds - Vindication, Toccet and Sky Mesa - as well as the well regarded Badge of Silver, grass star Nothing to Lose and the filly Composure. There are also the decisions of Dubai-based Godolphin Racing and Irish trainer Aidan O'Brien to pass on the race.

What would seem to make running attractive this year is that, outside of Empire Maker, there doesn't appear to be another horse to scare off anyone. While Toyota Blue Grass winner Peace Rules and Santa Anita Derby winner Buddy Gil both have won two consecutive major Derby preps, there remain questions about whether they are true one-mile horses, especially given the slow final fractions of their last races. The Arkansas Derby was won by 55-1 shot Sir Cherokee.

Ten Most Wanted looked like a true stayer when he won the Illinois Derby, but he has yet to beat top-notch competition. Atswhatimtalknbout for weeks was considered the biggest threat to Empire Maker, but he turned in a dull performance when fourth as the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby.

"The story the next three weeks is whether Empire Maker sneezes or not," said Churchill Downs Vice President John Asher. "The shape of the whole race depends on that, how healthy he stays."

If Empire Maker were to fall victim to injury or illness, then the Downs would be dealing with a slew of late entries, Asher said, "because everybody will think they've got a shot."

As confident as he is in Empire Maker, Bobby Frankel, who also trains Peace Rules, said, "Nothing is ever a cinch. You're always in your mind figuring how you can get beat."

He said if he didn't have Empire Maker, he would be extremely excited about Peace Rules in the Derby.

"He's a good horse, and he's very game," he said. "When you get to him, you can't get by him so easily."