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Saturday, May 3, 2003

Jobless rate hits 6 percent


Influx of workers 'a good sign'

By John Byczkowski
The Cincinnati Enquirer

A jump in the unemployment rate is usually unmitigated bad news, but not in April.

The jobless rate rose to 6.0 percent last month, equaling its highest point since the recession began in March 2001, the U.S. Labor Department reported Friday.

But many economists focused on the positives. "There was a huge influx of workers," said Lynn Reaser, chief economist for Banc of America Capital Management in St. Louis.

Unemployment jumped because 680,000 workers joined the work force in April, and 339,000 of them found work. "Discouraged workers came back to the job market," said Sung Won Sohn, an economist for Well Fargo & Co. in Minneapolis. "That's usually a good sign."

The stock market apparently agreed that the employment report wasn't all bad news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.5 percent Friday, and finished the week up 3.3 percent. In the eyes of investors, the jobs report "wasn't a train wreck. It's cause for hope," said Pete Sorrentino, director of equity research for investment manager Bartlett & Co. in Cincinnati.

The employment survey was done in mid-April, at the peak of the war in Iraq, so economists warned that Friday's report says almost nothing reliable about where the economy is today.

"The economy still seemed to be showing softness as the war came to an end," Reaser said. "We still have little evidence in the underlying trend in the economy, post-war."

That's important because the Federal Reserve Board's Open Market Committee meets Tuesday to determine the course of interest rates. After the Fed's last meeting March 18, the board surprisingly admitted it didn't know where the economy was headed, so clouded was the picture by the uncertainties of war.

That may not have changed, though the fighting is over. Reaser said the Fed next week might again shrug its shoulders, and leave interest rates where they are.

With the war out of the way, it's up to business to begin investing and hiring. Sohn said he's not sure that will happen soon. "The key is business confidence. They're the ones who hire people," he said.

E-mail johnb@enquirer.com



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