By Dustin Dow
The Cincinnati Enquirer

With Tuesday's decision by Atlantic Coast Conference presidents to pursue expansion to 12 members, the first step has been taken toward what could become a major restructuring of the college sports landscape.

No one knows what will happen but depending on their conference affiliation, people who run college athletics are speaking to each other with either nervous or excited undertones.

The only sure bet is that if Miami bolts the Big East for the ACC, the effects will be felt throughout the country, including Cincinnati where the University of Cincinnati and Xavier could find themselves in new conferences.

"When all is said and done, there could be a shift," said University of Cincinnati athletic director Bob Goin. "We have to make sure that we're ready to react."

It has been a poorly kept secret among Big East and ACC athletic directors in the past year and a half that the ACC has been courting Miami to bolster the conference's football presence. Miami athletic director Paul Dee said this week that his school was interested but must examine the specifics before making a commitment.

The ACC's athletic directors are meeting this week on Amelia Island, Fla.

The Big East is scheduled to meet this weekend on Ponte Vedro Island, Fla.

"I am anxious to meet with our conference members and am prepared to do whatever it takes to preserve the 24-year history of the Big East Conference," commissioner Mike Tranghese said in a statement Wednesday.

Now that it has decided it will expand, the ACC's next move is to invite three schools to join. Those schools would need the approval of seven of the nine league presidents.

Miami and Syracuse appear to be easy choices, but the third team is trickier. Miami would like to bring Boston College along with Syracuse.

Virginia, at the urging of Gov. Mark R. Warner, wants Virginia Tech. Because there are already two ACC schools opposed to expansion, Virginia could become a third and essentially veto the addition of any school but Virginia Tech.

ACC commissioner John Swofford said he hopes the 12-team conference would begin play by 2005.

If three teams do leave the Big East, it could cause a split of the remaining six football-playing members and six basketball-only schools.

The football schools - West Virginia, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Virginia Tech and Temple - could break off and form a new conference, possibly with Conference USA members Cincinnati, Louisville and Memphis.

The basketball schools, all private Catholic institutions, might look toward like-minded institutions to rebuild the Big East as a basketball-only conference that could include Seton Hall, Villanova, Notre Dame, Providence, Georgetown and St. John's.

And even though Seton Hall athletic director Jeff Fogelson believes a Miami-ACC switch is not a done deal, he doesn't want to be caught off-guard if it happens.

"It would be foolish of us not to prepare in the event of a change," said Fogelson, a former Xavier AD. "We've talked separately among the (other) five (basketball only) schools. But our direction is not specific as to who we would go after . . . We have decided that if we had to [rebuild], our starting point would be our principles."

In other words, they would seek to align themselves with schools that are also private, with roughly the same enrollments, and that make sense geographically. Atlantic 10 schools such as Xavier, Saint Joseph's and Dayton, as well C-USA programs Marquette and DePaul might all qualify.

Fogelson said it's too early for schools to position themselves for "what-ifs" but that didn't stop A-10 commissioner Linda Bruno from discussing the situation with Xavier athletic director Mike Bobinski.

If the A-10 were to lose two-time defending regular-season champion Xavier, Dayton and Saint Joseph's to the Big East, the league's national reputation would suffer.

Bruno said the similarity between A-10 schools and Big East basketball-only schools makes A-10 schools easy targets if the Big East needs to add programs.

"Whenever there is conference movement, you have to monitor that," Bruno said. "It causes a domino effect because schools have to come and go from somewhere."

Xavier, for instance, probably would be better off financially in a new Big East with an ESPN television contract and a league tournament in Madison Square Garden.

The Musketeers' current TV deal with Fox Sports Net is regional; playing in the Big East would put the university on a national scale.

"You want your program to be strong," said Bobinski. "You want to be attractive, especially in the marquee sports so you can be attractive to a group of schools, should an opportunity present itself."

For UC, membership in a conference that includes recognizable football schools such as Pitt, West Virginia and Virginia Tech could provide a huge boost for a program that continues to struggle for recognition locally despite three straight bowl appearances and last year's Conference USA championship. But it wouldn't necessarily guarantee BCS membership.

"I wouldn't approach any other schools, and I'm not going to do anything unless it becomes a done deal," Goin said. "Then we'll decide what's best for the University of Cincinnati. I believe that UC is very attractive right now."

Even the Big Ten could be affected, with rumblings having already begun about that league trying to lure Big East member Pittsburgh to join as a 12th member.

"Because it's the Big East, we're at the center of all of this," said Seton Hall's Fogelson. "What is being characterized as an earthquake could end up being nothing more than a burp."

Enquirer reporter Bill Koch and the Associated Press contributed to this report.