The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee shipped around a poll last week showing that U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning, a Southgate Republican, is "vulnerable" in his 2004 re-election campaign.

Vulnerable to whom? The Dems still don't have a candidate to run against Bunning, a father of nine who is raising campaign cash the way he raised kids - in bunches. Look for Bunning to report a huge number, maybe as much as $500,000, on his quarterly campaign finance report.

When, and maybe if, the Democrats field a candidate, he or she will not only be getting a late start on the campaign trail but will be way behind in money raised. Remember, Gov. Paul Patton - who was going to run against Bunning pre-sex scandal - was out raising money two years ago. Bunning will be in a position to spend $5 million to $8 million.

No way can a Democrat get near that, unless it's Charlie Owen, the wealthy Louisville businessman who is running for lieutenant governor. Owen hasn't written any big checks in this year's race, but he would have to put up some cash to even be in the same league with Bunning.

None of that stopped the Dems from crowing about Bunning, claiming the poll of 612 likely voters interviewed June 6 and June 8 found that only 40 percent of Kentucky voters would vote for Bunning next year.

"Like a tobacco leaf in autumn, this poll shows that Jim Bunning is ripe for the pickin's," said Democratic spokesperson Brad Woodhouse.

Bunning and his camp dismissed the poll as partisan politics since the Democrats commissioned the survey. And Bunning spokesman Mike Reynard took issue with the committee's knowledge of Kentucky agriculture.

"In Kentucky, we don't pick tobacco in autumn, we cut it in August," Reynard said. "Obviously, the (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) knows as much about Kentucky politics as they do about tobacco."

Meanwhile, the lack of a Democratic candidate has convinced University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato, who also runs the school's Center for Politics, to handicap the race as "likely Republican."

"With Patton most definitely out of the race, and with the state Democratic Party reeling from the gubernatorial mess and the substantial GOP tide in Kentucky, a second term for Bunning looks a lot more likely," Sabato wrote on the center's Web site.

Email Patrick Crowley at pcrowley@enquirer.com. Crowley interviews Kentucky House Majority Caucus Chairman Jim Callahan this week on ICN6's "On The Record," broadcast daily on Insight Communications Channel 6.