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Wednesday, July 30, 2003

Consumer confidence crumbling



By Anne D'Innocenzio
The Associated Press

NEW YORK - Consumer confidence took an unexpected tumble in July, rattled by a jump in unemployment to a nine-year high. That could mean a longer road to economic recovery if consumers allow their shaken feelings to curtail their spending - a key driver of economic growth.

The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 76.6 in July, an almost seven-point drop from 83.5 in June, the New York-based business industry group said Tuesday. Analysts had expected a 1.5 percentage point increase.

The decline was the largest since February, when confidence dropped 14 points to 64.8 as consumers were bracing for the conflict in Iraq. Confidence surged in April as fighting tapered off, and some economic indicators improved in May and June.

Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board's Consumer Research Center, said July's drop is similar to the volatility in consumer confidence seen in the early 1990s when the economy was rebounding but still struggling with a weak job market.

"The rising level of unemployment and sentiment that a turnaround in labor market conditions is not around the corner have contributed to deflating consumers' spirits this month," Franco said. "Expectations are likely to remain weak until the job market becomes more favorable."

Consumers' assessment of current conditions and their outlook for six months from now deteriorated from June, particularly their perception of how available jobs are.

Economists and investors closely monitor consumer confidence because consumers spending accounts for two-thirds of all economic activity in the United States.



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