By Randy Tucker
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Dennessa Mc Kinney of Reading was hired by the Target store in Oakley for the Christmas season. (Ernest Coleman photo) | ZOOM |

Peer through the store windows at just about any mall or shopping center in Greater Cincinnati and the lack of "help wanted" signs stands out almost as vividly as the growing inventories of Christmas merchandise.

The beginning of October traditionally has been a time when ads for part-time, seasonal workers are plentiful, as retailers go after extra help they can train and have in place before the onslaught of holiday shoppers arrive. But with recent reports of falling consumer confidence and retail sales slowing after a strong back-to-school shopping season, many retailers are proceeding cautiously when it comes to adding workers.

"Retailers are scared," said Richard Feinberg, a Purdue University professor of consumer sciences and retailing. "They don't know what's going to happen in terms of holiday sales, so they'll hold off on spending the money to hire extra workers until they have a better idea of how sales will shake out."

Industry forecasts range anywhere from 4 percent to 6 percent growth in holiday sales this year, which means holiday sales gains could more than double their meager 2.2 percent gain last year.

But prognosticators have been wrong in the past. And retailers aren't taking any chances with hiring.

HOLIDAY JOB TIPS

Start now: It is not too early to secure a position for the holidays. Begin by determining what types of retailers are suited to your experience and skills. Don't overlook behind-the-scenes jobs: Only a portion of Christmas jobs are at the cash register or on the sales floor. There are opportunities in shipping, receiving and warehousing. Offer to be a floater: Chain stores with several locations may be interested in using you as a substitute for employees who call in sick. Promote computer skills: Many stores are changing from traditional cash registers to computer-based systems that allow stores to manage inventory more efficiently. Dress for success: Even though employees may not dress up for their jobs, it is always a good idea to wear your nicest clothes to interviews.

"We'll be fully staffed, but there's nothing special going on," said Kevin East, store manager at Kohl's in Florence. "We'll be adding about the same number (of workers) as last year."

The trend has been the same for most retailers since 2001, when lackluster consumer spending, fear of recession and the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks led retailers nationwide to cut back on staffing in anticipation of a weak holiday season.

Industry watchers are anticipating only a slight increase over 2002 Christmas hiring.

Retailers added about 555,000 workers during the holiday season last year, according to the international outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., which based its report on employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That was about 65,000 more workers than were added during the same period in 2001.

By comparison, retailers added an average of 655,000 seasonal workers during the holidays from 1998-2000, Challenger reports.

"Even if hiring approaches pre-2001 levels, competition for these jobs will be fierce," said John Challenger, CEO of the outplacement firm. "There are more than 13 million Americans out of work. Many are qualified and willing to accept part-time, temporary positions."

Today's holiday hiring scene is a sharp contrast to what it was in the late 1990s, when the economy was strong and unemployment was so low that some retailers offered signing bonuses and set-your-own-hours work schedules to entice holiday workers.

"Prior to Sept. 11, when the unemployment rate was so low, you had to start the hiring process very early to get qualified candidates before they were hired elsewhere," said Ellen Fructman, a spokeswoman for Lazarus department stores. "But now we've got a far more qualified candidate pool."

That means the competition for holiday gigs is a lot tougher, but there are still jobs to be had - depending on where you look.

Seasonal hiring varies greatly by retail sectors.

For example, discount chains - which again are expected to reap the lion's share of holiday spending - are planning to add a significant number of jobs over the holidays.

"We're always looking to grow, and stores that may have brought on seasonal help of 50 last year are probably going to be looking to add 60 to 70 this year," said Scott Murphy, store team leader at the Target store at the Center of Cincinnati in Oakley. "You can never have too much good help. This is a people business, especially around the holidays, and you've got to have the right people in the right place."

On the other hand, struggling department stores and apparel retailers aren't planning to boost hiring much over last year's levels.

Many retailers also have found ways to be more productive and get by with fewer workers, which also has resulted in cutbacks in seasonal staffing. For example, some have replaced checkout lanes with computerized self-checkout stations.

E-mail rtucker@enquirer.com