By Patrick Crowley
The Cincinnati Enquirer

OWENTON, Ky. - New polls show Republican Ernie Fletcher ahead in the governor's race, yet Democrat Ben Chandler has a slight lead among Northern Kentucky voters.

But Chandler and the Democrats can "dream on" if they expect to put up big Election Day numbers in a traditional GOP stronghold, Fletcher said last week.

"If (Chandler) thinks he can attract Republican votes in Northern Kentucky, then I think he is very misguided," Fletcher said during a campaign stop in Owen County, a farming community about 50 miles southeast of Covington. "The (Republican) base is fired up and we've been in Northern Kentucky so many times we have a lot of Democratic support up there."

Two new statewide polls give Fletcher a sizable lead over Chandler:

• Fletcher leads Chandler 52 percent to 43 percent, according to an Associated Press poll of 600 likely voters surveyed Oct. 21-23. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 points.

• Fletcher also leads Chandler by nine points - 48 percent to 39 percent - in a Bluegrass State Poll by The Louisville Courier-Journal. The 712 likely voters were surveyed from Oct. 21-23 . The margin of error is plus or minus four points.

That poll showed Chandler slightly leading Fletcher in Northern Kentucky, 45 percent to 41 percent.

Republicans bristle at the claim Chandler can cut into the GOP base in Boone, Kenton and Campbell counties.

"Philosophically, voters ... throughout Northern Kentucky are more in tune with the Republicans," said Fourth District GOP Chairman Marcus Carey. .

Nearly a year ago, Republican judge-executives Steve Pendery of Campbell County, Dick Murgatroyd of Kenton and Gary Moore of Boonecommitted to Fletcher. And he lined up big-name business leaders: Developer Bill Butler and homebuilder Ralph Drees head a finance committee that has raised more than $300,000, about double Chandler's fund-raising in the region.

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E-mail pcrowley@enquirer.com