By John Byczkowski
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Two businessmen work in the same region, in the same economy, and have completely different outlooks.

Verst Group Logistics of Walton owns 17 warehouses in three states and a fleet of trucks. CEO Paul Verst says it's full steam ahead. "We're looking at double-digit growth next year," he said. "We've seen an upsurge in manufacturing, a lot of new products coming out."

Across the river in Cincinnati, Ivan Misrach, president of Richards Electric Supply Co. sees things differently.

"For the industrial business, it looks very, very difficult. Industries are still closing here, moving offshore," he said. There's been a bit of an uptick in business recently, but "I'm not convinced that it's going to be that strong next year, and we won't be hiring. I think it's tough times ahead."

No matter what President Bush or Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan say, to most company executives, the economy is only as good as the business that comes across their desks.

A survey of companies in the Greater Cincinnati 100 shows many are optimistic about the next 12 months, though the last year was tough for many.

Asked last year about their outlook for the economy, 54 companies said they expected the 2003 economy to be flat. Technically, they were proved wrong: The economy nationally will grow around 3 percent in 2003.

But that big picture obscures the reality for those companies. Asked how their companies have performed over the past 12 months, 47 of the 100 said revenue was flat or down, compared with 43 that said sales grew (10 gave no response).

Asked about profits, 46 said they were flat or down, while 41 said they were up (13 gave no response).

Economists expect growth next year to top 4 percent. Of the Cincinnati 100, 54 expect an economic expansion over the next 12 months, while 33 expect a flat economy.

These companies are equally confident about putting their optimism into action. Of the 100, 53 said they expect to add workers, and 43 say they expect to spend more on information technology.

Some of that optimism might be premature, however. Businesspeople say they won't hire until they see that business is rising.

Take construction firm Reece-Campbell Inc. of Cincinnati. The company is heavily involved in school construction, and with school rebuilding programs in Cincinnati and surrounding areas, president Pete Chronis is confident of steady work the next few years.

But he won't be hiring until he has signed contracts.

With other sectors of construction weak - such as offices and warehouses - "I think it would be difficult for any construction company in this market to say that they definitely plan to hire staff. I think everybody's in a holding pattern," Chronis said.

Chris MacConnell, president of Thompson MacConnell Cadillac, agrees. He said he expects modest improvement in the economy, but "I think we have capacity that we can fill with an (economic) expansion before we have to add headcount."

E-mail johnb@enquirer.com