By Neil Schmidt
The Cincinnati Enquirer

COLUMBUS - Get out the calculators, Buckeye fans, and brush up on your calculus. The Sugar Bowl is in sight.

After a series of upsets the past two weekends, Ohio State has jumped to No. 3 in the Bowl Championship Series standings. Even the players are having a hard time avoiding talk about the scenarios that could land them in the BCS title game. "I watch ESPN, and it's there every other second," tailback Lydell Ross said. "It's hard not to know what's going on."

Top-ranked Oklahoma (10-0) appears destined for New Orleans. Yet it's not right to assume that Southern California (8-1), No. 2 in the BCS, will be the Sooners' opponent simply by winning out.

Ohio State (9-1) has enough of an advantage over USC in strength of schedule and computer ratings that it could move to No. 2 even without a Trojans loss.

Should both teams win out, the key to the Buckeyes' Sugar Bowl hopes is a loss by Louisiana State, No. 4 in the BCS.

The Tigers rank No. 3 in both Top 25 polls, a spot ahead of OSU. If the Buckeyes can pass LSU in the polls, they would lower their composite poll ranking - one of the factors in the BCS formula - from 4 to 3, and thereby subtract one ratings point from their total. OSU currently has 7.73 BCS points to USC's 6.27. The lower, the better.

"If they get to No. 3 (in the polls), you've gotta like their chances," BCS guru Jerry Palm said of the Buckeyes. "The realistic scenario is, LSU has to lose."

The Tigers (8-1) have four games remaining if they qualify for the Southeastern Conference championship. Even if they win them all, they aren't likely to hurdle USC or OSU unless those teams lose - because of poor computer ratings, their overall BCS figure is 13.17.

LSU has a rough schedule, playing at Alabama and Mississippi and finishing at home against Arkansas. The SEC title game is Dec. 6.

There are five components to the BCS formula, and a team's number in each category is added together to produce its overall figure. That's the average of its ranking in both polls, average of the six highest of its seven computer ratings, schedule strength ranking, one point added for each loss, and a quality-win component to reward teams for victories over those in the BCS's top 10.

Should both teams win out, then OSU's advantage over USC in computer ratings (currently 2.17 to 2.83) and schedule strength (currently 0.56 to 0.64) would have to make up for USC's advantage in the polls. OSU's schedule thus far is ranked 14th best in the country; USC's is 16th best. But the Buckeyes should improve that number, facing Purdue and Michigan, while USC has no ranked opponents in its final three games.

USC's lone advantage is that it is getting 0.2 points subtracted for beating Washington State, No. 10 in the BCS.

"Ohio State's chances really come down to strength of schedule and computer ratings," Palm said.

The race is close enough that upcoming results for teams OSU and USC faced earlier could figure in heavily. So the Buckeyes suddenly must pull for teams like Bowling Green and San Diego State, whom they beat, and root against the likes of Hawaii and Notre Dame, whom the Trojans beat.

"We can't let ourselves become overly engulfed in (the BCS standings)," OSU tight end Ben Hartsock said. "But after Wisconsin, we thought we'd ruined our chances as far as a national title. (Now) we're still in the hunt. We just have to have things go our way."

SANDER HONORED: Ohio State punter B.J. Sander has been named one of 10 semifinalists for the Ray Guy Award, presented annually to the nation's top punter. The fifth-year senior from Roger Bacon High School is averaging 43.2 yards per punt, and OSU's net punting average of 41.1 yards ranks seventh in the country.

Twenty-four of Sander's 52 punts have been downed inside the 20-yard line.

"This was one of my goals when I began the year, to be on that list," Sander said. "It's a great honor."

Furious finish

Remaining schedules for front-runners in the race for the Sugar Bowl:

OKLAHOMA (10-0)

Sat.	Baylor (3-7)
Nov. 22	at Texas Tech (7-3)
Dec. 6	Big 12 championship

USC (8-1)

Sat.	at Arizona (2-8)
Nov. 22	UCLA (6-4)
Dec. 6	Oregon State (6-3)

OHIO STATE (9-1)

Sat.	Purdue (8-2)
Nov. 22	at Michigan (8-2)

LSU (8-1)

Sat.	at Alabama (4-6)
Nov. 22	at Mississippi (8-2)
Nov. 28	Arkansas (6-3)
Dec. 6	SEC championship

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E-mail nschmidt@enquirer.com