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Friday, November 14, 2003

Predicting WR performance can drive an owner wacky


Fantasy football

By John Nemo
Enquirer contributor

In a season where Anquan Boldin has become a more valuable fantasy threat at wide receiver than Terrell Owens, the question needs to be asked - what the heck is going on? Playing wide receiver roulette each week has become a common practice for fantasy owners. A look at the field:

Sure bets

Randy Moss is the best fantasy receiver on the planet, having racked up 998 yards and 10 touchdowns in just nine games. Next up would be Torry Holt, who despite getting shut down in last Sunday night's game against Baltimore still has 1,015 yards receiving and nine scores. For his reliability more than anything else, Marvin Harrison rounds out the big three with 777 yards and seven scores, though his gimpy hamstring should be sending out red alerts everywhere this week.

Hot numbers

New York Jets speedster Santana Moss has been the best fantasy receiver in the NFL the past four weeks, racking up 474 yards and six touchdowns. You have to play this guy every week until he cools off, and with the way Chad Pennington has gotten going, it could be awhile. Carolina's Steve Smith, Jake Delhomme's favorite target, has put up 645 yards and five scores, and always seems to come up with the big touchdown when the Panthers (and fantasy owners) need it most. Hines Ward (717 yards, eight TDs) has gotten his act together in Pittsburgh, while Boldin (790 yards, four TDs) is also revving up after a long scoring drought. Keenan McCardell continues to be Brad Johnson's favorite target and has to be one of the fantasy surprises of the year so far (693 yards, six scores). Everyone is this group needs to stay in your lineup until their number stops showing up in the end zone.

Sucker bets

Terrell Owens has a gimpy groin, several dropped passes and the wrath of fantasy owners everywhere. If he can't get it going at home on Monday Night Football against the worst pass defense (Pittsburgh) in the league, it's time to give up on TO for this year. Hey, Plaxico Burress! Remember him? Neither does Tommy Maddox, and that's made life infuriating for Plaxico owners in 2003. David Boston returned to the realm of fantasy relevance last week, but he'll continue to be up-and-down as San Diego alternates between tough pass defenses and cupcakes. Even with Jake Plummer finally getting healthy, it's doubtful any of Denver's receivers - Rod Smith, Ashley Lelie and Ed McCaffery - will have a gigantic impact. Jerry Rice, Tim Brown and Jerry Porter have been reduced to fantasy non-factors thanks to Rick Mirer's presence in Oakland. Peerless Price has one one touchdown this season, and he'll be lucky to double that by season's end. Same goes for Marty Booker in Chicago and Eric Moulds in Buffalo.

Even money

This list is long, because it's filled with guys who most weeks will give you something decent, with an occasional monster game. Included: Joe Horn, Amani Toomer, Ike Hilliard, Isaac Bruce, Johnnie Morton, Chris Chambers, Chad Johnson, Peter Warrick, Jimmy Smith, Keyshawn Johnson, Tai Streets, Javon Walker, Terry Glenn, Derrick Mason, and Laveranues Coles.

Long shots

Here are the guys you can plug in during a bye week or when you feel like living on the edge. You might get rewarded with a 78-yard touchdown, or no catches. Here they are: Deion Branch, Andre Johnson, Corey Bradford, Reggie Wayne, Tyrone Calico, Drew Bennett, Troy Edwards, Troy Walters, Kelly Campbell, Bryant Johnson, Donte Stallworth, Travis Taylor, Eddie Kennison, Troy Brown, Quincy Morgan, Andre Davis and Rod Gardner.

Remember, wide receiver roulette can be tricky. When in doubt, go with your gut instinct. That's what any good (or maybe it's lucky) gambler will tell you.

John Nemo writes Fantasy Fanatic, a nationally syndicated column, every week. Reach him with question and comments at johnnemo@comcast.net




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