The Associated Press

FOXBORO, Mass. - The New England Patriots already beat the Indianapolis Colts once this season, 38-34 at Indy, when Willie McGinest stopped Edgerrin James on fourth down at the 1 yard line.

One guarantee: There won't be 72 points scored when the Patriots host the Colts in Sunday's AFC championship game. Not in Foxboro's swirling winds. The forecast calls for highs in the 20s or low 30s.

The Patriots are favored by just three points. That's primarily because Peyton Manning has been sizzling, throwing for 681 yards and eight touchdowns and no interceptions in wins over Denver and Kansas City. He has a near-perfect passer rating of 156.9.

But the first game was indoors at Indianapolis and the second was in comfortable, 50-degree weather in Kansas City.

"It's not the cold that gets you here as much as the wind," Patriots QB Tom Brady says.

Manning probably won't be perfect this week. Indy's no-huddle offense can confuse opponents, but the Patriots rarely surrender touchdowns at home.

The unheralded Carolina Panthers have a decent shot against the Eagles. Philadelphia might not be in the NFC title game if Mike Sherman hadn't made a couple of questionable calls and if Donovan McNabb and Freddie Mitchell hadn't converted a fourth-and-26 pass that led to a tying field goal at the end of regulation.

This is another rematch: The Eagles won 25-16 in Carolina on Nov. 30. But John Kasay, Carolina's otherwise outstanding kicker, missed three field goals and an extra point, 10 points that could have been the difference.

McNabb against Jake Delhomme at quarterback would seem to give the Eagles the edge. But Carolina's front four is one of the best units in the NFL.

One factor is Philadelphia's mental state after losing two straight conference title games.

The Eagles overcame a 14-0 deficit against Green Bay last week. But Carolina's defense is tougher and geared to stop McNabb's running - he gained 107 yards last week.