Steve Shoemake, principal with the InnovatEdge Consulting Services, an Eastgate-based firm that offers companies insights and solutions to workforce challenges, thinks local companies are soon going to shudder from a shortage of workers.

When? Before you know it, perhaps before the end of 2005.

"Aging baby boomers starting to retire is in stark contrast to today's headlines of a jobless recovery," Shoemake says.

"Our message is that the jobless recovery might be where we are at right now, but if you're looking to the future, you probably need to start thinking about how to retain your best employees. It's shaping up to be a perfect storm."

Shoemake brings that message to a box lunch leadership forum of the Greater Cincinnati Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday at noon at the Clarion Hotel, Blue Ash. To register, call 579-3111.(More info at www.innovativedge.com.)

Here is his premise:

Though long-term unemployment is at a historically high level and excruciating for those caught in its grip - the Employment Policy Institute says three unemployed people for every job opening - companies are in the eye of a storm.

Should the economy gather steam, workers' portfolios will get a lift and that will likely lead many to quit their job, move to a retirement community and play golf all the livelong day.

"A gold rush toward early retirement," he says.

"People who have hung on because they don't have the money may be able to pull the trigger. By 2010, U.S. employers can expect a shortfall of 10 million workers."

That is, 10 million jobs will be open because there simply aren't enough people to fill those slots.

As a result, firms need to focus on three elements: recruiting, retention and productivity.

"In a labor shortage, companies won't be able to hire everybody they want, retain everybody they need and companies won't be as productive as they're going to have to be," Shoemake said.

Another variable will take companies into a brand new inter-generational Neverland. For the first time in U.S. history, Shoemake says, firms will have four generations working simultaneously:

The last of the Silent Generation (those born from 1933-1945), Baby Boomers (1946-1964), Gen-Xers (1965-76) and that gum-chewing but optimistic Gen-Y crew (1977-1998).

Motivation for each demands a different approach: baby boomers like traditional ($$$$) rewards.

Other generations seek a work-life balance. "You might reward a boomer with a promotion," he says. "A Gen-Xer may appreciate a cafeteria-style array of rewards."

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E-mail jeckberg@enquirer.com