By Carl Weiser
Enquirer Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON - If Ohio voters needed any more indication of their importance in the November election, take a look at President Bush's first stop after tonight's State of the Union speech.

It's Ohio.

At a community college Wednesday morning in Toledo, Bush plans to talk about the economy and a new job-training program to be proposed during tonight's speech. It will be the president's 14th trip to Ohio.

"Toledo and the state of Ohio are in the middle of the heartland of America, and the president looks forward to traveling there and speaking directly to the people there about the vision he will outline in the State of the Union," White House spokesman Jim Morrell said.

White House officials say today's speech and the following road trip to three battleground states - Ohio, Arizona, and New Mexico - aren't about politics.

But no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. And Bush campaign officials know no Republican is going to win Ohio without convincing Ohioans the economy is getting better and jobs are coming back.

Priority: More jobs

Ohio has lost 74,000 jobs since Bush took office, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The state unemployment rate in January 2001 was 3.9 percent. In November, it was 5.7 percent.

The unemployment rate for the Cincinnati area in November was 4.5 percent. When Bush took office it was 4 percent. It was as high as 5.5 percent as recently as June.

"He's coming to talk about an important issue in Ohio: How do we make the transformation from old line manufacturing to new high-tech jobs?" Rep. Rob Portman said Monday from Iowa, where he was working on behalf of the Bush campaign.

Portman, a Terrace Park Republican who has close ties to the White House, said Bush's message today in Washington and Wednesday in Toledo will be that the economy has turned the corner - that nationally and in Ohio, jobs are being created, albeit slowly, and that he has a plan to create better jobs.

Indeed, the federal figures show jobs are increasing in Ohio and unemployment is dropping, though not yet to the levels of when Bush took office. Manufacturing jobs have been especially hard hit.

Dismissing a rising stock market, Sen. John Kerry told ABC's This Week on Sunday: "Go to Ohio and ask those factory workers and people about the Dow."

Most polls nationally show the economy and jobs as the top issue for voters, ahead of Iraq and terrorism.

"The president has said that he will not be satisfied with regards to the economy until every American who needs a job can find a job," Morrell said.

A cool reception

Bush will not get a warm welcome from local labor officials, said Steve Fought, legislative director for Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Toledo Democrat.

Union workers and Democratic Party officials in neighboring Wood County plan protests during the Bush visit, Fought said.

"It's like the president is going to an area of the country that has been most severely hurt by his policies," Fought said.

During his State of the Union speech, Bush will announce a new Labor Department grant program to offer career training to students and unemployed workers, said Terry Hartle, senior vice president for the American Council on Education. Bush will offer more details on the program when he visits Owens Community College in suburban Toledo.

The State of the Union speech during presidential election years amounts to the first major campaign speech. Nationally televised during prime time, it gives the president a chance to signal the themes of his re-election campaign.

"Most State of the Union addresses are not that dynamic," said Henry Scheele, a Purdue University communication professor.

"But this speech will be seen by many Americans as the president's first major address of the campaign."

Westwood Democrat Shelly Stolarczyk won't be watching the speech.

"I try to avoid upsetting myself," said the 30-year-old grants manager for a nonprofit organization.

A Joe Lieberman backer, Stolarczyk said she knows Bush will talk about the economy and how he will create more jobs in Ohio.

"Anything he would say - I don't know whether or not I would believe it," she said.

But she said the president has made at least one good decision: visiting Toledo and not Cincinnati.

"Good, we won't have any traffic issues," she said.

Heartland messages

Other parts of the speech also will be aimed at Ohio, especially at heartland conservatives who support smaller government and lower taxes.

Bush will ask that his tax cuts be made permanent. Many are set to expire in the next few years. He will argue that not making them permanent would amount to a tax increase.

"People in my district care a lot about that, people who are trying to raise family and make ends meet," Portman said.

Bush will urge Congress to restrain the growth of federal spending, something Rep. Steve Chabot says he hears complaints about from his constituents all the time.

"I think we've allowed spending to grow at far too rapid a pace. And that's a danger," said Chabot, a Westwood Republican. "Thus far the Congress hasn't been willing or able to face up to it. The president has also been remiss in emphasizing controls on the spending."

He said few Republicans will criticize the president on spending, especially during an election year. But said Chabot: "Call a spade a spade."

Bush will talk about his plans to remake the Middle East into a peaceful, democratic region that no longer exports terrorism.

And most important, Portman said, he'll try to set a hopeful and optimistic tone.

That more than anything is how Bush hopes to set himself apart from the Democratic nominee and win Ohio votes this fall, Portman said. "He'll present a positive agenda for change.

"When people contrast that with the negative, sometimes cynical message they're hearing from the other side of the aisle, I think that will make more a difference on the (November voting) decision than many of the specific items."

Contributing: Greg Wright, Gannett News Service.

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E-mail cweiser@gannett.com