By Ron Fournier
The Associated Press

DES MOINES, Iowa - John Kerry rode an 11th-hour surge to victory in Iowa's kickoff presidential caucuses, upsetting Democratic front-runner Howard Dean and stunning caucus favorite Dick Gephardt. Kerry's comeback blew the nomination fight wide open, setting the stage for a free-for-all in New Hampshire's follow-up primary.

Gephardt scrapped plans to fly to New Hampshire for next week's primary after a disappointing fourth-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, a source said Monday night, possibly signaling the end of his presidential campaign.

"I want to thank Iowa for making me the Comeback Kerry," Kerry said.

Two weeks ago, Dean and Gephardt were the co-favorites, but Monday night the former Vermont governor was stuck in third. He pledged to plow ahead, saying, "On to New Hampshire." Gephardt, winner of the 1988 caucuses, was falling far short of the victory he needed to keep his political career alive.

Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina was in second. "It feels terrific," Edwards said as he awaited the final results at a downtown hotel. "What's happened here the last two weeks with my campaign has been phenomenal." The Dean campaign said Dean called Edwards to congratulate him on his showing.

In an echo of Bill Clinton's line from the 1992 New Hampshire primary, Kerry talked about his late surge.

"We came from behind here, and we came for a fight here, and my message is now to the special interests who call the White House home: We're coming to you."

Just weeks ago, before the Iowa race turned testy and tumultuous, Dean was the undisputed front-runner - and anything less than a victory for him would shake up the crowded field, raising questions about his Internet-driven organization and anti-establishment message.

Late-deciding voters turned away from mistake-prone Dean and his signature position in opposition to the Iraq war did not seem to resonate.

With 88 percent of the precincts reporting, Kerry had 37.8 percent, Edwards 32.2 percent, Dean 18.1 percent and Gephardt 10.6 percent.

An AP analysis of the Iowa delegate count showed Kerry with seven delegates, Edwards with six delegates and Dean with three, with 29 delegates still to be allocated.

A survey of caucus-goers, done for AP and the networks to measure initial preferences, showed Kerry got an especially strong boost from voters who said the "right experience" was the most important candidate quality - a theme the four-term Massachusetts senator pounded home in the race's final days.

More than half told pollsters they decided to support him on Monday night, a sign his last-minute surge may have overtaken the vaunted political organizations of Dean and Gephardt.

Kerry and Edwards closed the campaign with positive messages while Dean and Gephardt went on the attack.

"I hate mudslinging," said Theresa Stradala, who voted for Edwards.

Dean said the attacks took their toll. "We were way ahead, and when you're way ahead people decide you're the target," he told CNN. "And we were pretty much the target of everybody for a long time."

The entrance poll showed Kerry reaping the benefits of Gephardt's poorer-than-expected showing. Of the people who came to the caucuses backing the Missouri lawmaker - about 16 percent of the total - 24 percent named Kerry as their second choice and 24 percent named Edwards.

Dean, a polarizing figure prone to missteps and controversy in the race's final days, was the second choice of just 5 percent.

Gephardt, winner of the 1988 caucuses, would be unlikely to continue his campaign if defeated here.

Expectations were lower for Edwards and Kerry, thus a solid showing would give them momentum for the New Hampshire primary and the seven-state follow-up Feb. 3. Victory would send them surging.

"I think we're going to win," Dean said hours before voting began, before hedging his bets: "No matter what happens, we're going to have more to do."

Caucuses started late in schools, libraries, living rooms and other sites of 1,993 precincts because of the volume of people attending. Democrats ran out of registration forms at Precinct 21 in Iowa City; at least 100 people were still lined up on the sidewalk outside the Horace Mann school.

Dianne Dillon-Ridgely, a veteran caucus-goer, said, "this is bigger than anything I've ever seen. We're not going to have enough room in here."