By Allison Linn
The Associated Press

SEATTLE - By the time Microsoft Corp. settled its antitrust case with the U.S. Justice Department, the Internet browser war that precipitated it had already been fought - with Microsoft the victor.

In the ensuing years, technology has moved so fast - and the legal process so slowly by comparison - that the software behemoth won other market battles before legal challenges could be resolved.

That might not be so with the European Commission's expected ruling against Microsoft today.

The European Union's executive body was expected to fine Microsoft and order the company to offer a version of its flagship operating system in Europe that has been stripped of Windows Media Player.

And that gives European regulators a rare chance to influence Microsoft's current behavior, rather than trying to make amends for alleged wrongdoing against already sunken competitors.

Microsoft is just one of the companies battling over how people will hear and see music and videos online when a market now in its infancy matures.

"The EU decision comes when the media wars, if you could call it that, are ongoing," said Joe Wilcox, senior analyst with Jupiter Research.

About 34 percent of U.S. Internet users played a song or watched video using Microsoft's Windows Media Player in February, according to Nielsen/Net Ratings. That compares with about 20 percent who used rival RealNetworks' format and about 9 percent who used Apple's Quick Time. Other media players also are snagging smaller audiences, and some people likely used more than one player.

That wasn't the case in the browser battle between Microsoft's Internet Explorer and Netscape's Navigator. By the time the courts ruled that Microsoft abused its monopoly when it included its browser with Windows, Netscape was virtually vanquished.

Experts say Microsoft still holds about 90 percent of that market - about the same as its desktop operating system share - and that's unlikely to change.

The potential for competitors to benefit from a negative ruling in the European Union case is particularly strong if Microsoft is forced to sell a version of Windows without the media player at a slightly cheaper price, said Phil Leigh, an analyst with Inside Digital Media.

That would allow other media player companies such as RealNetworks to offer computer manufacturers their players for free, improving computer makers' slim profit margins and giving a competitor the immediate consumer access that Microsoft has enjoyed until now.

"Without a doubt, it will create an opportunity for (competitors)," Leigh said.

Microsoft spokesman Jim Desler said the company believed that it was premature to speculate on any potential market impact.

If Microsoft were forced to ship a version of Windows without its media player, that could also mean it would have to start persuading users to download its player from the Internet - just like its competitors'.

Even in that case, analyst Ted Schadler of Forrester Research says, Microsoft's dominance might again give it an advantage.

"Microsoft has incredible brand recognition," Schadler said. "It's easier to convince people (to download the Windows Media Player) than to convince people to download the RealPlayer."

Schadler said the overall market for music and video online could suffer as many people opt not to download any media player at all. He thinks the best option for all involved would be to include a number of players with Windows.

Wilcox disagrees, saying most Internet users know how to download media and software.

Microsoft has defended its business conduct and accused RealNetworks of using its lawsuit to try to gain market share.