By Jeannine Aversa
The Associated Press

WASHINGTON - America's economic recovery ended 2003 on a good note, growing at a 4.1 percent annual rate, and is expected to do even better in the opening quarter of this year.

The latest reading on gross domestic product for October through December was the same as a previous estimate made a month ago, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. That was consistent with economists' forecasts.

GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced within the United States and is considered the most important barometer of the economy's health.

Economic growth in the current January-to-March quarter is expected to clock in at a rate of 4.5 percent, according to some analysts' forecasts. Growth in the April-to-June quarter also should be around that pace, they said.

Tax refunds and other tax incentives should motivate consumers and businesses to spend and invest more - energizing the economy in the first half of this year, economists said.

"I think we should have another couple of good quarters," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, an analysis firm. "The only thing we can be hoping for now is some job growth."

If the lackluster job climate persists, some worry that consumers might turn cautious, thus raising the risk of an economic slowdown in the final two quarters of this year.

The economy added just 21,000 jobs in February - all of them in government - a Labor Department survey of payrolls showed. Job growth has been painfully slow despite better economic activity.

Since President Bush took office in January 2001, the economy has lost 2.2 million jobs.

New claims for unemployment benefits rose last week by a seasonally adjusted 1,000 to 339,000, the Labor Department said.

Although the fourth quarter's GDP growth rate was slower than the red-hot 8.2 percent pace of the third quarter, the economy's performance in the second half of 2003 was the fastest back-to-back quarterly increases since the first two quarters of 1984.