By Carl Weiser
Enquirer Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON - President Bush and Democrat John Kerry are in a dead heat in Ohio, the state widely considered the most important in the race for the White House.

The University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll released Friday showed Kerry at 46 percent and Bush at 44 percent, close enough to be within the poll's plus or minus 3.9 percentage-point margin of error.

The poll confirms Ohio's status as battleground and bellwether. Like the nation as a whole, Ohio is about evenly split over whom to elect.

And it is polarized into so-called Democratic blue states and Republican red states - though in Ohio's case, northeastern Ohio is blue and southwestern Ohio red. The political newsletter Hotline calls Ohio a "purple state."

The split isn't just geographic: Kerry is more popular among women, Bush among men.

Young people 18 to 29 overwhelmingly support Kerry while Bush's top support is among those 45 to 64.

High school dropouts love Kerry; college graduates prefer Bush.

"There is incredible polarization. Part of that is you have an administration that seeks to divide rather than unite," said James Ruvolo, state chairman of the Kerry for President Committee.

Anyone who takes strong stands is going to stir up opposition, and President Bush has aggressively fought terrorism and cut taxes, said Greg Hartmann, who chairs Bush's campaign in Hamilton County.

"He's got a clear vision for where he wants America to go. There's not a lot of waffle in President Bush. The same can't be said for his opponent," Hartmann said.

The polarization is more pronounced than at this time during the 2000 election, said The Ohio Poll's co-director, Eric Rademacher, though he cautioned the polls aren't directly comparable - the 2000 poll relied on likely voters while Friday's used registered voters.

"The adversarial climate seems to be a little bit stronger than it was at this point in 2000," he said. "We're really seeing registered voters very much gravitating toward their candidate, providing very negative sorts of opinions about the other side's candidates."

That means moderates and independents, about 8 percent to 12 percent of the electorate, will decide the election, he said.

If that's true, this poll has good news for Kerry: He's leading solidly among moderates and independents.

"Ohio voters are raging moderates," Ruvolo said. "Narrow ideological appeals only work with a small part of each party's base."

Ohio is universally considered the most important swing state of the 2004 election. It has been called "the new Florida," "Ground Zero," and the No. 1 battleground state in the November election.

Earlier this month, MSNBC's Chris Matthews threatened to move his Hardball show there because "you people in Ohio are going to decide the election." Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean this month said, "Ohio is going to be the real battleground state."

No Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio. Since 1964, the candidate winning Ohio has won the presidency.

Cincinnati residents already have seen a barrage of ads from the Bush campaign, the Kerry campaign, and private groups.

"I think it's interesting that Ohio is a swing state," said Gina Marsh, a stay-at-home mom and Bush opponent from Liberty Township. "I feel very fortunate to live here because this is where it's all going to go down."

Hartmann said Kerry's lead among independents and moderates is only temporary. The poll of 632 registered voters was taken March 10 to March 22, in the weeks after Kerry and other Democrats had barnstormed the state for the crucial March 2 primary.

"I don't think the massive organizational effort going on in the Bush campaign has had a chance to influence public opinion yet. But it will in the end," Hartmann said. The campaign plans a neighborhood-by-neighborhood onslaught, with signs, meetings and an army of volunteers.

"This election really is about getting your supporters to the polls, much less about fighting for the middle," he said.

But Ruvolo, echoing Rademacher, said swing voters will decide the election. He said the support of moderates has encouraged him.

Other poll highlights:

• Ralph Nader gets about 5 percent of the vote although among 18- and 19-year-olds, the figure is 20 percent. Rademacher said that group tends to be politically volatile.

• Overall, Ohioans have an unfavorable view of Nader.

• Only 15 percent of Ohio's blacks say they have a favorable opinion of President Bush. Among white Ohioans, it was 54 percent.

Email cweiser@gannett.com