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Saturday, April 17, 2004

Predictions for NBA awards


Season's end held valuable lessons for NBA award-watchers

By JOHN DENTON
Florida Today

The end of the NBA's regular season is finally upon us, and certainly in places like Orlando, it couldn't have gotten here soon enough. But in several other NBA cities, the real season, i.e. the postseason, is just beginning.

The regular season taught us that, yes, LeBron James is every bit as good as the hype. It taught us that the Lakers can pump out far more compelling drama than the actors across town in Hollywood.

It taught us that when surrounded with proper talent, Kevin Garnett really can win big. It taught us that the Sacramento Kings might actually be better without Chris Webber heaving up those 20-footers. It taught us that Yao Ming is truly going to be a dominant force - as long as Steve Francis passes him the ball.

And it reminded us that Jerry Sloan is the best coach of our generation and Tim Floyd might still be the worst. It reminded us that one-man teams (Think: Tracy McGrady in Orlando, Vince Carter in Toronto, Allen Iverson in Philadelphia and Paul Pierce in Boston) will not work in the NBA.

We also learned which players are the best of the best. So away we go with our picks for this year's award winners.

Most Valuable Player

Kevin Garnett, Timberwolves. A lot of the stuff that comes out of the mouth of TNT analyst Charles Barkley is pure nonsense, but the Chuckster makes a very good point when it comes to Garnett's case for the MVP award. Barkley didn't win the MVP until 1993, his first year in Phoenix when he was surrounded with other great players. Theoretically, that would mean he would have had to do less, but in actuality Barkley ended up raising his game to extraordinary levels.

The same can now be said for Garnett. He has significantly more help after GM Kevin McHale went out and landed Sam Cassell and Latrell Sprewell in the offseason. To show his appreciation, all Garnett did was deliver one of the finest all-around seasons the NBA has seen in years. By averaging 24.2 points, 14 rebounds, five assists and 2.1 blocks a game, Garnett staked his claim as the game's greatest all-around player. And finally, Garnett will taste some playoff success after losing in the first round seven consecutive seasons.

Denton's ballot: 1. Garnett; 2. Tim Duncan, Spurs; 3. Peja Stojakovic, Kings; 4. Jermaine O'Neal, Pacers; 5. Shaquille O'Neal, Lakers.

Coach of the Year

Hubie Brown, Grizzlies. Considering that Utah's Sloan lost two Hall of Famers, coached a team picked by many to be historically bad to within a game of the playoffs and had to deal with his wife's illness, I'm almost ashamed to pick against him for this award. But that tells you just how special of year it was for Hubie Brown.

Brown was thought to be out of touch with his player 20 years ago when he first left coaching, but he has managed to get through to players seemingly unreachable. He got Jason Williams to play under control, got Bonzi Wells to fit in and got Stromile Swift to play hard. It's impressive that he's won with a franchise that has never won anything. But it's even more impressive that he's done it in the rugged Western Conference, beating San Antonio three times, the Lakers twice and the Mavericks twice.

This is by far the toughest category to pick a winner, so don't be surprised to see Brown and Sloan share the award. It would only be fitting since Sloan has never won this award.

Denton's ballot: 1. Brown; 2. Sloan; 3. Rick Carlisle, Pacers; 4. Jeff Bzdelik, Nuggets; 5. Stan Van Gundy, Heat.

Rookie of the Year

LeBron James, Cavaliers. No rookie has come into the league with more hype and expectations than James - and the teen sensation did not blink once. He proved he is every bit as good as advertised and his face that will be the future of the league. No, his team didn't make the playoffs, but that will soon change. James will eventually become a better shooter and by next season he'll be one of the top five players in the league.

Carmelo Anthony gets high marks for getting Denver into the playoffs, but he certainly had plenty of help from Andre Miller, Nene, Marcus Camby and Earl Boykins. Anthony will be an All-Star for the next 10 years and will someday win a scoring title.

Any other season and Miami's Dwyane Wade would be a lock to win this award. He has ended the questions about his ability to run the point in the NBA and has proven to be one of the league's most athletic players.

Denton's ballot: 1. James; 2. Anthony; 3. Wade; 4. Josh Howard, Mavericks; 5. Kirk Hinrich, Bulls.

Defensive Player of the Year

Ron Artest, Pacers. Artest cleaned up his act this season, going from a player with serious emotional control issues to one of the best stoppers in the league. Not only does he intimidate players with his size and strength, he wears them down with a motor that never stops running. Artest is one of the rare breeds of players who has the ability to guard three positions (shooting guard, small forward and power forward)... And for good measure, he's become a solid offensive player, boosting his scoring average 4.1 points over his career average.

Ben Wallace, Theo Ratliff and Andrei Kirilenko are the game's best shot blockers. Garnett totally disrupts team's offenses from his spot in the middle of the Minnesota zone.

Denton's ballot: 1. Artest; 2. Kirilenko, Jazz; 3. Wallace, Pistons; 4. Ratliff, Blazers; 5. Garnett.

Sixth Man Award

Manu Ginobili, Spurs. He initially fought the move to the bench, even suggesting that he might need to move on to play for another team. But like most battles with players, San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich won it and proved to be exactly correct. No one doubts that Ginobili has starting talent, but because he can do so many things well, he is the perfect utility man off the bench. He'll play big minutes in the postseason and possibly even replace Hedo Turkoglu in the starting lineup.

Antwan Jamison has been a good soldier in Dallas, refusing to complain about his role as a reserve. The same can't always be said for Indiana's Al Harrington, who feels strongly that he could be starting for any other team in the league. Both may get their chances to move on if flameouts in the playoff come.

Denton's ballot: 1. Ginobili; 2. Jamison; 3. Harrington; 4. Penny Hardaway, Knicks; 5. Darrell Armstrong, Hornets.

Most Improved Player

Andrei Kirilenko, Jazz. Not that he wasn't already an emerging star, but the pencil-thin Kirilenko blossomed into a true force this season. He carried a Utah team that was thought to be depleted with his smothering defense and all-around brilliance. In addition to averaging 16.5 points, 8.1 rebounds and 3.1 assists, he also ranked third in the NBA in blocks (2.7) and fourth in steals (1.9).

James Posey was considered an offensive liability in the past, but has turned into a true threat in Memphis. His 13.7 point average is by far the most he's ever scored in a full season. Cleveland's Carlos Boozer, a second-round pick in 2002, will make teams regret passing on him for years to come.

Denton's ballot: 1. Kirilenko; 2. Posey; 3. Boozer; 4. Zach Randolph, Blazers; 5. Samuel Dalembert, Sixers.

Executive of the Year

Jerry West, Grizzlies. West has reaffirmed his status as the most astute judge of talent in NBA history. Many scratched their heads when he left LA for the Grizzlies, a franchise where seemingly no one could win. People scratched their heads when West picked Hubie Brown as his coach, and all Brown has done is craft the NBA's feel-good story of the year. West has given hope and respectability to a franchise that had very little prior to this season.

Detroit's Joe Dumars has proven just as crafty as a general manager as he was a player. He pulled off the deal of the season in getting Rasheed Wallace, a player who might lead the Pistons back to the NBA Finals. But Dumars loses points for taking Darko Milicic over Carmelo Anthony. Put Anthony on the Pistons, a team that has trouble scoring, and Detroit would be favored to win it all.

Denton's ballot: 1. West; 2. Dumars; 3. Kevin McHale, Timberwolves; 4. Kiki Vandeweghe, Nuggets; 5. Isiah Thomas, Knicks.

Denton's all-stars

All-NBA First Team: G Kobe Bryant, Lakers; G Peja Stojakovic, Kings; F Tim Duncan, Spurs; F Kevin Garnett, Timberwolves; C Shaquille O'Neal, Lakers.

All-NBA Second Team: G Sam Cassell, Timberwolves; G Tracy McGrady, Magic; F Jermaine O'Neal, Pacers; F Ron Artest, Pacers; C Yao Ming, Rockets.

All-NBA Third Team: G Jason Kidd, Nets; G LeBron James, Cavaliers; F Lamar Odom, Heat; F Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets; C Ben Wallace, Pistons.

All-Rookie Team: G LeBron James, Cavaliers; G Dwyane Wade, Heat; F Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets; F Josh Howard, Mavericks; C Chris Bosh, Raptors.




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