By Dan Klepal
The Cincinnati Enquirer

CICADA MANIA

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Cicadas are likely to make their grand appearance in Greater Cincinnati a week earlier than expected: May 14, give or take five days, instead of the original prediction of May 21.

Gene Kritsky, a biology professor at the College of Mount St. Joseph and a cicada expert, made the new prediction Wednesday after creating a computer model that accounts for ground temperatures (55.5 degrees as of Wednesday); the weather forecast for May; and historical information about when cicadas have emerged. Kritsky and his lab assistants measure the temperature 3 to 5 inches below ground surface.

Periodical cicadas appear every 13 or 17 years, depending on the particular generation or "brood." This year's red-eyed bugs belong to Brood X, the largest group of cicadas. Brood X is expected to number in the billions locally.

"Not every cicada is going to come out on exactly the same day," Kritsky said, adding that four years ago, he observed cicadas begin to emerge May 7, then they stopped for a week because of a cold snap. "The weather is one variable that's hard to predict."

Kritsky said he's looking forward to testing the accuracy of his prediction and is asking the public to report the cicada sightings at: www.msj.edu/cicada. Kritsky said he's interested only in adult cicada sightings.

E-mail dklepal@enquirer.com