What about this horse? Can he do it? Will the mile-and-a-half be too much? Is this the one? What was it like, Steve Cauthen, to win the Triple Crown?

He has seen lots of horses run lots of races. Cauthen says without coughing that the Smarty Jones he saw win the Preakness Saturday is likely the best horse he's seen since the one he rode in '78. When Cauthen and Affirmed crossed the Belmont finish line 26 years ago, Cauthen felt relieved, exhausted, vindicated and proud.

"I felt like I'd been up against the ropes and fought my way out," Cauthen said Sunday from his home in Northern Kentucky. "We battled down the stretch and won."

Not that Smarty Jones will be battling, at least not in the neck-and-neck sense. "If he could finish the way he did (Saturday), he could win the Belmont by more than Secretariat did," said Cauthen. Greatness doesn't share the screen.

Greatness demands a captive audience bearing all witness to its solo genius. Thirty-one years ago, when we saw Secretariat roaring down the Belmont stretch, alone with his singular gifts, we had no doubt what we were watching. It remains one of those spine-tingling moments that keeps us coming back to our games.

Secretariat won by 31 lengths. Smarty Jones won the Preakness by 111/2. Down the stretch he came, also alone on our TV screens. Spines curled again, ever so slightly.

Since 1919, when Sir Barton won the first Triple Crown, 47 horses have won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, then lost the Belmont. There have been five in the last seven years. It's always stunning when a horse wins the Triple Crown. This year, it will also be stunning if one does not. Smarty Jones is that good.

"The only thing that would prevent him from doing it is bad luck," Cauthen said. Cauthen sees a rare synergy between owners, trainer, jockey and horse. He sees a horse that's maturing at the sweetest moment in time. "Becoming more professional" was how Cauthen described Smarty Jones. "You just push a button with him. You talk to him, he goes."

Cauthen can't analyze what his eyes tell him is true. He just knows greatness when he sees it. "These horses," he said, "are a gift from above. You don't know when they're going to come around, or how long they're going to last."

What is it about the Belmont, Cauthen was asked, that derails so many dreams? What, other than the long 11/2 miles, turns champions into footnotes?

"Winning the Triple Crown is like winning three title fights in five weeks," Cauthen said. "You have to overcome slight setbacks. Fresh horses come at you every time."

He doesn't see the added distance as a problem for Smarty Jones: "Watching (Saturday), I had no reason to think he couldn't go around the track again."

Cauthen knows what jockey Stewart Elliott will feel three Saturdays from now, when he hears the call to the post: "You're walking out like a gladiator, trying to prove yourself to the world." Cauthen believes the horse will feel it, too.

"I always felt Affirmed knew. He was very intelligent." Smarty Jones "can handle anything thrown his way. He's not worried about what's going on around him. He's like great champions in any sport. That self confidence ..."

Maybe the last, best Triple Crown chance came a year after Affirmed did it. In 1979, Spectacular Bid was a heavy favorite, but came up lame the day before the Belmont. A safety pin from a leg bandage had pierced a hoof. He finished third. That's what Cauthen meant about bad luck.

Beyond that, it's Smarty Jones' game to win. We'll check our TV screens for greatness 19 days from now. It should be running solo.

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E-mail pdaugherty@enquirer.com