By Cindi Andrews
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Hamilton County might be on the hook for up to $286 million for its football and baseball stadiums if people don't start doing some serious shopping here, according to new projections from the county administration.

"I see this as a fiscal time bomb," County Commissioner Phil Heimlich said Thursday.

A half-cent-on-the-dollar sales tax approved by county voters in 1996 needed to average 3 percent growth a year to cover construction and operating costs for Paul Brown Stadium and Great American Ball Park. Leaders said the target was conservative given historic averages of 5 percent growth, but the county has missed it for the past four years.

Now, the sales tax will have to consistently grow by 4 percent a year to break even on expenses and construction debt, according to the county's budget office. The sales tax brought in $60.4 million in 2003, virtually unchanged from 2002.

The county has set aside $25 million to cover unexpected expenses, but because of the sales tax slump, Heimlich wants to increase that pot to $80 million. Tax increases are not an option, he said, so cuts may be necessary in social services and court operations.

If sales tax growth averages 3 percent a year between now and 2032 - when the debt is supposed to be paid off - annual shortfalls will add up to $80.6 million in today's dollars. Annual growth of 1 percent would translate to a $285.9 million shortfall.

The red ink will probably start to trickle in 2006 or 2007, according to Assistant County Administrator Eric Stuckey.

Heimlich and Commissioner Todd Portune say the coming fiscal crunch is one reason they feel duty-bound to sue the Cincinnati Bengals and the National Football League.

The county has asked to take over a federal lawsuit that alleges the team illegally used its pro football monopoly to extort a new stadium and favorable lease terms from the county.

E-mail candrews@enquirer.com